TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129016
Played Sep 15Finished
Krzysztof Hetnar
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113711118611311
Kacper Slawinski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Hetnar above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 82 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Kacper Slawinski at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 10–11 Kacper Slawinski Krzysztof Hetnar has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Hetnar beat Slawinski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:32What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Slawinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1500 vs Slawinski 1508
Slawinski
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 80% vs Slawinski 60%
Hetnar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 60% vs Slawinski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar -1 · Slawinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Slawinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 2.00 / Slawinski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Slawinski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13129016
Hetnar2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 33 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Slawinski1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 115 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it82% 84 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHetnar6wins
AwaySlawinski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHetnar leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar66.7%4 of 6
AwaySlawinski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar6Slawinski4n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S2Hetnar5Slawinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Hetnar7Slawinski3n = 10Hetnar took 7 of 10
S4Hetnar5Slawinski3n = 8Hetnar took 5 of 8
S5Hetnar2Slawinski3n = 5Slawinski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHetnarSlawinskiH − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.238.7+3.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime718 / 1171 vs 622 / 100461.3%62%718 / 1171 vs 622 / 1004Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiHetnar 2.00/Slawinski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Slawinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 07:20K. Hetnar4171111123K. Slawinski341167101
WAug 17 · 14:20K. Hetnar531116411113K. Slawinski4381811422
LAug 17 · 08:10K. Hetnar379711101K. Slawinski3911115123
WAug 12 · 09:25K. Hetnar45111211113K. Slawinski27414451
WJan 12 · 12:30K. Hetnar511311511113K. Slawinski5015911782
WJan 12 · 08:10K. Hetnar331111113K. Slawinski268990
WDec 18 · 17:20K. Hetnar331111113K. Slawinski208750
LNov 19 · 06:30K. Hetnar4011512842K. Slawinski529111011113
LSep 30 · 05:55K. Hetnar4681181182K. Slawinski49118118113
LSep 25 · 13:55K. Hetnar43111011652K. Slawinski47812511113
K. Hetnar10
LSep 15 · 14:40M. Baron2.631111113K. Hetnar1.448850LSep 15 · 12:15P. Gumulinski1.8311811113K. Hetnar1.83811681WSep 15 · 11:00P. Przewlocki2.384440K. Hetnar1.531111113WSep 15 · 09:25M. Sikon2.7534110K. Hetnar1.401111133WSep 15 · 08:35P. Gumulinski2.107780K. Hetnar1.671111113WSep 15 · 07:20K. Hetnar1.9171111123K. Slawinski1.801167101WSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron2.505850K. Hetnar1.501111113LSep 15 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.38514113113K. Hetnar1.53111271192WSep 15 · 03:25M. Sikon3.001161041K. Hetnar1.3691112113LSep 10 · 17:05K. Hetnar1.8611119592O. Jadach1.80451111113
K. Slawinski10
WSep 15 · 14:20P. Przewlocki2.009660K. Slawinski1.731111113LSep 15 · 11:25M. Sikon3.251110119113K. Slawinski1.3391251192WSep 15 · 10:35P. Gumulinski1.91761321K. Slawinski1.80111111113WSep 15 · 09:00M. Baron3.005117121K. Slawinski1.3611811143WSep 15 · 08:10P. Przewlocki2.2011580K. Slawinski1.611311113LSep 15 · 07:20K. Hetnar1.9171111123K. Slawinski1.801167101WSep 15 · 05:15M. Sikon3.25117791K. Slawinski1.3341111113LSep 15 · 04:30M. Baron2.631411113K. Slawinski1.4412980WSep 15 · 03:00P. Gumulinski1.911011561K. Slawinski1.8012911113WSep 14 · 14:20P. Przewlocki2.50111191192K. Slawinski1.50813118113
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