TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145907
Played Sep 18Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711116611––
Jerzy Pelka
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Adamus above · Jerzy Pelka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 62.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Adamus 5–2 Jerzy Pelka Jerzy Pelka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1427 vs Pelka 1396
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Pelka 80%
Pelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 70% vs Pelka 40%
Adamus
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Pelka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.61 / Pelka 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Adamus)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13145907
Adamus1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 200 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it99% 98 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it79% 151 of 192
Pelka2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 81 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayPelka2wins
5 of 7 to a deciderAdamus leads 5–2, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%3 of 3
AwayPelka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Pelka4n = 7Pelka took 4 of 7
S2Adamus6Pelka1n = 7Adamus took 6 of 7
S3Adamus3Pelka4n = 7Pelka took 4 of 7
S4Adamus2Pelka5n = 7Pelka took 5 of 7
S5Adamus4Pelka1n = 5Adamus took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricAdamusPelkaA − PBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match44.944.3+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusPelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 667 vs 433 / 92855.3%46.7%369 / 667 vs 433 / 928Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.61/Pelka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus32871161J. Pelka3911116113
LJul 14 · 07:55P. Adamus43612101142J. Pelka531110129113
WSep 6 · 03:10P. Adamus51911128113J. Pelka45117101162
WJul 27 · 03:05P. Adamus4217113113J. Pelka431591181
WJul 26 · 21:05P. Adamus52131189113J. Pelka46117111162
WJan 9 · 14:30P. Adamus44111147113J. Pelka4178111142
WJan 9 · 12:05P. Adamus50911118113J. Pelka4311791152
P. Adamus10
LSep 18 · 05:40P. Adamus1.57119118122W. Urban2.25811911143WSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus1.80111011113J. Nowak1.91912781WSep 18 · 03:00P. Adamus2.2511711113S. Szostok1.57311851WSep 17 · 08:45P. Adamus1.381111123O. Sokolowski2.6567100LSep 17 · 07:10P. Adamus2.3614780O. Jadach1.481611113WSep 17 · 06:00P. Adamus2.2011119113J. Pruszkowski1.60761181LSep 17 · 04:25P. Adamus1.70118119102O. Vincenec1.95711511123WSep 17 · 03:10P. Adamus1.80111278113M. Lebek1.90810111172WSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113WSep 17 · 01:10O. Jadach1.60491171P. Adamus2.1011111113
J. Pelka10
WSep 18 · 07:45J. Nowak1.80541181J. Pelka1.9111119113WSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750WSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780LSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123LSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113
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