TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141178
Played Sep 17Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181210711811117
Marian Lebek
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1181210711811117
H2H Pawel Adamus 9–8 Marian Lebek Marian Lebek has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Lebek beat Adamus 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:45What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1423 vs Lebek 1435
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Lebek 80%
Lebek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Lebek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +3 · Lebek +2
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.80 / Lebek 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13141178
Adamus1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 197 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it99% 95 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it78% 148 of 189
Lebek1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 88 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayLebek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%3 of 3
AwayLebek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Adamus4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S3Adamus4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Adamus3Lebek1n = 4Adamus took 3 of 4
S5Adamus2Lebek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusLebekA − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.436.9−3.5per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 660 vs 847 / 145555.5%58.2%366 / 660 vs 847 / 1455Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.80/Lebek 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 22:50P. Adamus2513840M. Lebek371511113
LSep 10 · 06:10P. Adamus4348111192M. Lebek47111177113
WSep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus331111113M. Lebek195680
WAug 26 · 21:10P. Adamus331111113M. Lebek236980
LAug 20 · 03:10P. Adamus4681151392M. Lebek531191111113
LJul 9 · 03:10P. Adamus126330M. Lebek331111113
LJun 11 · 06:45P. Adamus239950M. Lebek331111113
LFeb 10 · 18:10P. Adamus209380M. Lebek331111113
WAug 3 · 23:10P. Adamus50613128113M. Lebek451111101122
WAug 3 · 17:10P. Adamus49116813113M. Lebek46711111162
P. Adamus10
LSep 17 · 04:25P. Adamus1.70118119102O. Vincenec1.95711511123WSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113WSep 17 · 01:10O. Jadach1.60491171P. Adamus2.1011111113WSep 17 · 24:25P. Adamus1.3911119113O. Sokolowski2.65851171LSep 16 · 22:50P. Adamus2.0013840M. Lebek1.701511113LSep 16 · 22:00J. Pruszkowski1.6211811113P. Adamus2.15711991WSep 16 · 02:35P. Adamus1.6711511133J. Pruszkowski2.109118111LSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113LSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.6111121110102K. Schaniel2.20414912123WSep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.671211113M. Koczyba2.1010890
M. Lebek10
WSep 17 · 04:50O. Jadach1.656470M. Lebek2.031111113WSep 17 · 02:20J. Pruszkowski1.635111071M. Lebek2.0511912113WSep 17 · 01:35O. Sokolowski2.955121161M. Lebek1.3511148113LSep 16 · 23:35O. Vincenec2.2011118123M. Lebek1.577911101WSep 16 · 22:50P. Adamus2.0013840M. Lebek1.701511113WSep 16 · 21:10O. Jadach1.654990M. Lebek2.031111113LSep 16 · 08:20M. Paszkiewicz2.19111110113M. Lebek1.56941281WSep 16 · 07:35K. Kowalski4.755580M. Lebek1.141111113WSep 16 · 05:35P. Mecik2.559540M. Lebek1.421111113WSep 16 · 04:50S. Szostok1.7061161182M. Lebek1.95118117113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.