TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141941
Played Sep 17Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1178111159111012
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1178111159111012
H2H Pawel Adamus 9–7 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Adamus beat Vincenec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:21What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1420 vs Vincenec 1344
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Vincenec 40%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Vincenec 20%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +4 · Vincenec +1
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.70 / Vincenec 1.95
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Adamus)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13141941
Adamus1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 200 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it99% 98 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it79% 151 of 192
Vincenec1.95
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 184 of 459
Down 0–1, comes back23% 63 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus75%3 of 4
AwayVincenec66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Vincenec6n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S2Adamus5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus7Vincenec3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Adamus5Vincenec3n = 8Adamus took 5 of 8
S5Adamus1Vincenec3n = 4Vincenec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusVincenecA − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.638.1+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 661 vs 667 / 146555.4%45.5%366 / 661 vs 667 / 1465Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.70/Vincenec 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 02:00P. Adamus331111113O. Vincenec216690
LAug 28 · 17:05P. Adamus279990O. Vincenec331111113
WAug 28 · 08:45P. Adamus43111110113O. Vincenec31651281
LJul 20 · 11:00P. Adamus3531110111O. Vincenec4111512133
WJul 20 · 04:55P. Adamus45117114123O. Vincenec43411711102
LJul 10 · 22:35P. Adamus50138111172O. Vincenec48151147113
LJul 10 · 15:00P. Adamus43831111102O. Vincenec45111138123
LJul 9 · 06:00P. Adamus4411911762O. Vincenec49911711113
WJul 7 · 08:20P. Adamus43101111113O. Vincenec36127891
WJun 29 · 12:20P. Adamus4391111123O. Vincenec341158101
P. Adamus10
WSep 17 · 03:10P. Adamus1.80111278113M. Lebek1.90810111172WSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113WSep 17 · 01:10O. Jadach1.60491171P. Adamus2.1011111113WSep 17 · 24:25P. Adamus1.3911119113O. Sokolowski2.65851171LSep 16 · 22:50P. Adamus2.0013840M. Lebek1.701511113LSep 16 · 22:00J. Pruszkowski1.6211811113P. Adamus2.15711991WSep 16 · 02:35P. Adamus1.6711511133J. Pruszkowski2.109118111LSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113LSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.6111121110102K. Schaniel2.20414912123WSep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.671211113M. Koczyba2.1010890
O. Vincenec10
WSep 17 · 03:35O. Vincenec1.551211811113O. Sokolowski2.3014511982LSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113LSep 17 · 24:45O. Vincenec2.60981161J. Pruszkowski1.4111115113WSep 16 · 23:35O. Vincenec2.2011118123M. Lebek1.577911101LSep 16 · 22:25O. Jadach1.5091211113O. Vincenec2.401110731LSep 16 · 21:35O. Vincenec1.586111441O. Sokolowski2.25111312113LSep 14 · 04:40G. Marud1.711111133O. Vincenec2.0084110LSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak2.1111113113O. Vincenec1.60791161LSep 14 · 01:55M. Adamus1.8181111113O. Vincenec1.82119661LSep 14 · 01:10O. Jadach1.481314113O. Vincenec2.49111260
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