TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13137387
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Paszkiewicz
Home
2.19
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191141012118––
Marian Lebek
Away
1.56
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1191141012118––
H2H Michal Paszkiewicz 19–31 Marian Lebek Michal Paszkiewicz has won 19 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.56 (58%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-31 in 50
Lebek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paszkiewicz 1350 vs Lebek 1422
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paszkiewicz 60% vs Lebek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paszkiewicz 60% vs Lebek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paszkiewicz +3 · Lebek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paszkiewicz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaszkiewicz 2.19 / Lebek 1.56
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Lebek)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13137387
Paszkiewicz2.19
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 74 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 66
Lebek1.56
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 238 of 377
Up 2–0, closes it96% 160 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it82% 210 of 255
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaszkiewicz3wins
AwayLebek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaszkiewiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLebek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paszkiewicz2Lebek8n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S2Paszkiewicz4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S3Paszkiewicz3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S4Paszkiewicz2Lebek4n = 6Lebek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaszkiewiczLebekP − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.736.9−7.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaszkiewiczLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 790 vs 843 / 144853.3%58.2%421 / 790 vs 843 / 1448Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekPaszkiewicz 2.19/Lebek 1.56
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Paszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 03:10M. Paszkiewicz336101161M. Lebek4311129113
WSep 8 · 22:50M. Paszkiewicz5712131110113M. Lebek50141171262
LSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz195680M. Lebek331111113
LSep 3 · 08:00M. Paszkiewicz25411461M. Lebek4111811113
WSep 3 · 01:10M. Paszkiewicz4213117113M. Lebek311151141
LAug 7 · 06:00M. Paszkiewicz162680M. Lebek331111113
LAug 5 · 05:35M. Paszkiewicz34711971M. Lebek4211911113
LJul 31 · 04:50M. Paszkiewicz125340M. Lebek331111113
LJul 29 · 06:00M. Paszkiewicz152670M. Lebek331111113
WJul 24 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz44111012113M. Lebek305121031
M. Paszkiewicz10
WSep 16 · 06:45P. Mecik2.10281311112M. Paszkiewicz1.601111114133WSep 16 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.2091412692M. Paszkiewicz1.5711121011113WSep 16 · 05:10M. Paszkiewicz1.221011911133K. Kowalski3.75127113112LSep 16 · 04:00M. Paszkiewicz2.4268100S. Szostok1.461111123LSep 12 · 14:20A. Cichocki1.3351111113M. Paszkiewicz3.25115991WSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113WSep 12 · 11:25K. Juszczyk1.44312931M. Paszkiewicz2.63111011113WSep 12 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk2.251114691M. Paszkiewicz1.57131211113LSep 12 · 09:00W. Urban1.8011611113M. Paszkiewicz1.91511991LSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.4011159113M. Paszkiewicz2.757131181
M. Lebek10
WSep 16 · 07:35K. Kowalski4.755580M. Lebek1.141111113WSep 16 · 05:35P. Mecik2.559540M. Lebek1.421111113WSep 16 · 04:50S. Szostok1.7061161182M. Lebek1.95118117113LSep 16 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.8511811113M. Lebek1.33911991LSep 16 · 02:20P. Polok1.6112411153M. Lebek2.0910119131WSep 16 · 01:35K. Kowalski5.459111151M. Lebek1.0911138113WSep 15 · 23:35J. Orszulik1.908760M. Lebek1.801111113WSep 15 · 22:50M. Tkocz1.746680M. Lebek1.951111113LSep 15 · 21:10S. Szostok1.711111113M. Lebek2.009990WSep 11 · 08:00R. Idaczyk2.353690M. Lebek1.501111113
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