TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136318
Played Sep 16Finished
Pawel Polok
Home
1.61
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12104111191513––
Marian Lebek
Away
2.09
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
12104111191513––
H2H Pawel Polok 4–1 Marian Lebek Marian Lebek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:41What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (56%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Polok
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1511 vs Lebek 1418
Polok
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 60% vs Lebek 80%
Lebek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 70% vs Lebek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +1 · Lebek +3
Lebek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.61 / Lebek 2.09
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Polok)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13136318
Polok1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 76 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it84% 62 of 74
Lebek2.09
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 92 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back28% 24 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePolok4wins
AwayLebek1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPolok leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolok100%4 of 4
AwayLebekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok4Lebek1n = 5Polok took 4 of 5
S2Polok3Lebek2n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S3Polok2Lebek3n = 5Lebek took 3 of 5
S4Polok1Lebek2n = 3Lebek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPolokLebekP − LBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match41.036.0+5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 184 vs 840 / 144365.2%58.2%120 / 184 vs 840 / 1443Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.61/Lebek 2.09
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 21 · 04:50P. Polok55118147153M. Lebek514111211132
LAug 20 · 21:10P. Polok226970M. Lebek331111113
WAug 16 · 07:45P. Polok46131111113M. Lebek361151371
WAug 7 · 06:45P. Polok341111123M. Lebek2385100
WAug 5 · 01:35P. Polok48111178113M. Lebek3737111152
P. Polok10
WSep 16 · 24:45J. Orszulik2.458770P. Polok1.491111113LSep 16 · 24:00S. Szostok1.881012117113P. Polok1.82121091162WSep 15 · 23:10P. Polok1.071112113K. Kowalski6.2041070LSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113WSep 15 · 20:45R. Adach3.655150P. Polok1.221111113WSep 15 · 19:35P. Polok1.751115113K. Juszczyk1.9861370WSep 15 · 18:25P. Kaczynski2.255127111P. Polok1.54111011133WSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113LSep 15 · 15:35J. Orszulik2.601211113P. Polok1.4110980WSep 14 · 02:45I. Szymanski4.708460P. Polok1.131111113
M. Lebek10
WSep 16 · 01:35K. Kowalski5.459111151M. Lebek1.0911138113WSep 15 · 23:35J. Orszulik1.908760M. Lebek1.801111113WSep 15 · 22:50M. Tkocz1.746680M. Lebek1.951111113LSep 15 · 21:10S. Szostok1.711111113M. Lebek2.009990WSep 11 · 08:00R. Idaczyk2.353690M. Lebek1.501111113WSep 11 · 07:10Y. Fomin2.20471161M. Lebek1.5711115113LSep 11 · 06:25M. Lebek1.37111181082J. Nowak2.70691112113LSep 11 · 04:50M. Lebek1.16911771R. Komandzik4.3511311113WSep 11 · 04:00M. Adamus2.35781181M. Lebek1.5011118113WSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110
Upcoming Matches
P. Polok
Nothing scheduled
M. Lebek
Sep 16 · 03:10M. Lebek1.33J. Kaczmarek2.85—Sep 16 · 04:50M. Lebek1.95S. Szostok1.70—Sep 16 · 05:35M. Lebek1.42P. Mecik2.55—Sep 16 · 07:35M. Lebek1.09K. Kowalski5.40—Sep 16 · 08:20M. Lebek1.56M. Paszkiewicz2.19—Sep 16 · 21:10M. Lebek—O. Jadach——Sep 16 · 22:50M. Lebek—P. Adamus——Sep 17 · 02:20M. Lebek—J. Pruszkowski——
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