TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145899
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511411119811––
Jerzy Pelka
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Jerzy Pelka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jerzy Pelka at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 15–28 Jerzy Pelka Jakub Nowak has won 15 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-28 in 43
Pelka
Correct
gap of 13 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1237 vs Pelka 1396
Pelka
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Pelka 80%
Pelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 30% vs Pelka 50%
Pelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -4 · Pelka +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.80 / Pelka 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pelka)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13145899
Nowak1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 48 of 68
Pelka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 81 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayPelka7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak25%1 of 4
AwayPelka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak4Pelka6n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S2Nowak4Pelka6n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S3Nowak3Pelka7n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S4Nowak3Pelka4n = 7Pelka took 4 of 7
S5Nowak3Pelka4n = 7Pelka took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakPelkaN − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.746.6−4.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakPelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1737 vs 433 / 92838.7%46.7%672 / 1737 vs 433 / 928Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelkaNowak 1.80/Pelka 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 12:45J. Nowak52119118132J. Pelka52611911153
WAug 10 · 10:20J. Nowak525111311123J. Pelka53119158102
LJul 17 · 24:00J. Nowak4912713892J. Pelka5410111111113
LJun 12 · 01:35J. Nowak2912980J. Pelka361411113
LJun 11 · 19:35J. Nowak51128117132J. Pelka551011811153
WMay 30 · 04:40J. Nowak48131176113J. Pelka48118111172
WMay 29 · 18:20J. Nowak47511811123J. Pelka48118118102
LApr 15 · 05:10J. Nowak25113110J. Pelka371311133
LMar 13 · 14:55J. Nowak4161171252J. Pelka491161110113
LMar 13 · 08:55J. Nowak2310580J. Pelka341211113
J. Nowak10
LSep 18 · 06:30J. Nowak2.38761581W. Urban1.53111113113LSep 18 · 05:15J. Nowak2.50121110141S. Szostok1.5014512163LSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus1.80111011113J. Nowak1.91912781LSep 18 · 03:25J. Nowak1.73711111092O. Vincenec2.00119812113WSep 15 · 08:45W. Urban1.5711471172J. Nowak2.17711118113LSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak1.9011813101J. Kaczmarek1.80131111123LSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151WSep 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.60118119102J. Nowak1.41711711123LSep 15 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.8311114113J. Nowak1.83891161WSep 14 · 05:05A. Ruszkiewicz1.84810110J. Nowak1.801112133
J. Pelka10
WSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus1.61871161J. Pelka2.2011116113WSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750WSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780LSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123LSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113
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