TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145987
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7116111513811––
Wojciech Urban
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 82 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Wojciech Urban at 60.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 20–42 Wojciech Urban Jakub Nowak has won 20 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-42 in 62
Urban
Correct
gap of 22 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1237 vs Urban 1419
Urban
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Urban 40%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Urban 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -3 · Urban +1
Nowak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.38 / Urban 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Urban)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13145987
Nowak2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 231 of 646
Down 0–1, comes back21% 82 of 388
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 229
Urban1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 163 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it74% 118 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayUrban7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayUrban62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak2Urban8n = 10Urban took 8 of 10
S2Nowak5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak2Urban8n = 10Urban took 8 of 10
S4Nowak3Urban4n = 7Urban took 4 of 7
S5Nowak3Urban2n = 5Nowak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakUrbanN − UBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.343.2−5.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1737 vs 764 / 161638.7%47.3%672 / 1737 vs 764 / 1616Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanNowak 2.38/Urban 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 06:30J. Nowak36761581W. Urban46111113113
WSep 15 · 08:45J. Nowak48711118113W. Urban4011471172
LSep 2 · 04:25J. Nowak2311660W. Urban351311113
LSep 1 · 21:35J. Nowak217680W. Urban331111113
LSep 1 · 05:05J. Nowak4114118352W. Urban521271111113
WAug 31 · 20:45J. Nowak46512711113W. Urban44111011572
WAug 26 · 05:10J. Nowak521611211123W. Urban53187117102
LAug 12 · 05:10J. Nowak4711981272W. Urban529111110113
LAug 11 · 23:10J. Nowak226970W. Urban331111113
LJul 27 · 01:55J. Nowak378127101W. Urban44111011123
J. Nowak10
LSep 18 · 07:45J. Nowak1.80541181J. Pelka1.9111119113LSep 18 · 05:15J. Nowak2.50121110141S. Szostok1.5014512163LSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus1.80111011113J. Nowak1.91912781LSep 18 · 03:25J. Nowak1.73711111092O. Vincenec2.00119812113WSep 15 · 08:45W. Urban1.5711471172J. Nowak2.17711118113LSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak1.9011813101J. Kaczmarek1.80131111123LSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151WSep 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.60118119102J. Nowak1.41711711123LSep 15 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.8311114113J. Nowak1.83891161WSep 14 · 05:05A. Ruszkiewicz1.84810110J. Nowak1.801112133
W. Urban10
WSep 18 · 05:40P. Adamus1.57119118122W. Urban2.25811911143LSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750LSep 16 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.20111213113W. Urban1.616141181LSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113WSep 16 · 12:15I. Szymanski3.50111231162W. Urban1.28814119113LSep 16 · 11:00K. Adamus1.671113123W. Urban2.10611100WSep 16 · 09:25R. Gajda1.831013891W. Urban1.83121111113LSep 16 · 08:35I. Szymanski3.751191511113W. Urban1.2591117892LSep 15 · 08:45W. Urban1.5711471172J. Nowak2.17711118113
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