TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134816
Played Sep 16Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811211711––––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 57.4%
50 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 34–73 Piotr Gumulinski Wojciech Urban has won 34 of their 107 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Urban beat Gumulinski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-73 in 107
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 39 in 107, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1429 vs Gumulinski 1432
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +1 · Gumulinski +4
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 2.20 / Gumulinski 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Gumulinski)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13134816
Urban2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 211 of 520
Down 0–1, comes back18% 52 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back6% 11 of 171
Gumulinski1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 346 of 566
Up 2–0, closes it94% 158 of 168
Up 1–0, closes it77% 235 of 307
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban6wins
AwayGumulinski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban100%4 of 4
AwayGumulinski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Gumulinski6n = 10Gumulinski took 6 of 10
S2Urban3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S3Urban6Gumulinski4n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S4Urban5Gumulinski3n = 8Urban took 5 of 8
S5Urban3Gumulinski1n = 4Urban took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanGumulinskiU − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.641.6+1.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime761 / 1610 vs 1026 / 182847.3%56.1%761 / 1610 vs 1026 / 1828Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiUrban 2.20/Gumulinski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 07:20W. Urban51911811123P. Gumulinski48119117102
WSep 8 · 11:00W. Urban53158126123P. Gumulinski5513111011102
WSep 8 · 04:55W. Urban5711131111113P. Gumulinski4451561352
LSep 2 · 05:35W. Urban156630P. Gumulinski331111113
LSep 2 · 01:35W. Urban29101090P. Gumulinski351212113
LAug 23 · 23:30W. Urban344711121P. Gumulinski4311117143
WAug 23 · 19:10W. Urban4213711113P. Gumulinski311111541
WAug 18 · 05:05W. Urban44101111123P. Gumulinski381279101
WAug 17 · 20:45W. Urban4813119153P. Gumulinski3611111131
LAug 17 · 05:05W. Urban53913111192P. Gumulinski53111579113
W. Urban10
WSep 16 · 12:15I. Szymanski3.50111231162W. Urban1.28814119113LSep 16 · 11:00K. Adamus1.671113123W. Urban2.10611100WSep 16 · 09:25R. Gajda1.831013891W. Urban1.83121111113LSep 16 · 08:35I. Szymanski3.751191511113W. Urban1.2591117892WSep 16 · 07:20W. Urban2.10911811123P. Gumulinski1.67119117102LSep 16 · 06:05P. Przewlocki1.831116113W. Urban1.8381480WSep 16 · 04:55K. Adamus1.67117891W. Urban2.1091111113LSep 16 · 03:25R. Gajda1.918111011113W. Urban1.8011412772LSep 15 · 08:45W. Urban1.5711471172J. Nowak2.17711118113LSep 15 · 07:10W. Urban1.86961241R. Idaczyk1.83111110113
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 16 · 14:20K. Adamus1.8011661172P. Gumulinski1.91711119113WSep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.0011880P. Gumulinski1.731311113WSep 16 · 10:35I. Szymanski4.505119111P. Gumulinski1.1711311133WSep 16 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.75771171P. Gumulinski1.4011118113WSep 16 · 08:10K. Adamus2.00121198102P. Gumulinski1.731091111123LSep 16 · 07:20W. Urban2.10911811123P. Gumulinski1.67119117102WSep 16 · 05:15R. Gajda2.20611841P. Gumulinski1.6111911113LSep 16 · 04:30P. Przewlocki2.251111113P. Gumulinski1.579490WSep 16 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.004670P. Gumulinski1.221111113WSep 15 · 13:55M. Sikon2.75281271P. Gumulinski1.40111110113
Upcoming Matches
W. Urban
Nothing scheduled
P. Gumulinski
Sep 17 · 03:00P. Gumulinski1.17I. Szymanski4.50—Sep 17 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 17 · 05:15P. Gumulinski1.53P. Kurek2.38—Sep 17 · 07:20P. Gumulinski1.67W. Ptak2.10—Sep 17 · 08:10P. Gumulinski1.13K. Kowalski5.50—Sep 17 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 17 · 10:35P. Gumulinski1.17I. Szymanski4.50—Sep 17 · 11:25P. Gumulinski1.53P. Kurek2.38—Sep 17 · 13:30P. Gumulinski1.67W. Ptak2.10—Sep 17 · 14:20P. Gumulinski1.13K. Kowalski5.50—
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