TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145995
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
121411510121416––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 94 set 4, 14-16 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 66.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 16–56 Sebastian Szostok Jakub Nowak has won 16 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-56 in 72
Szostok
Correct
gap of 40 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1250 vs Szostok 1480
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Szostok 60%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Szostok 70%
Szostok
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -2 · Szostok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Szostok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.50 / Szostok 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Szostok)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13145995
Nowak2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 231 of 646
Down 0–1, comes back21% 82 of 388
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 229
Szostok1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 325 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 207 of 260
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak1wins
AwaySzostok9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak25%1 of 4
AwaySzostok100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S2Nowak6Szostok4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Nowak4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S4Nowak2Szostok7n = 9Szostok took 7 of 9
S5Nowak0Szostok4n = 4Szostok took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakSzostokN − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.044.5−3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime673 / 1736 vs 915 / 156838.8%58.4%673 / 1736 vs 915 / 1568Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokNowak 2.50/Szostok 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 14:40J. Nowak341111571S. Szostok4161311113
LJul 1 · 16:25J. Nowak4112611842S. Szostok491011611113
LJul 1 · 02:10J. Nowak46121271052S. Szostok5410101112113
LJun 30 · 20:05J. Nowak401191371S. Szostok46131111113
LApr 12 · 13:55J. Nowak30711751S. Szostok3711411113
LApr 12 · 07:55J. Nowak46511911102S. Szostok51119118123
LMar 31 · 15:55J. Nowak561511111182S. Szostok55178136113
WMar 31 · 09:55J. Nowak341111123S. Szostok2679100
LMar 9 · 02:30J. Nowak409111191S. Szostok4211713113
LMar 8 · 20:30J. Nowak43111011111S. Szostok4413126133
J. Nowak10
LSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus1.80111011113J. Nowak1.91912781LSep 18 · 03:25J. Nowak1.73711111092O. Vincenec2.00119812113WSep 15 · 08:45W. Urban1.5711471172J. Nowak2.17711118113LSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak1.9011813101J. Kaczmarek1.80131111123LSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151WSep 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.60118119102J. Nowak1.41711711123LSep 15 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.8311114113J. Nowak1.83891161WSep 14 · 05:05A. Ruszkiewicz1.84810110J. Nowak1.801112133WSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak2.1111113113O. Vincenec1.60791161LSep 14 · 02:45O. Jadach1.331111113J. Nowak2.857940
S. Szostok10
LSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:00P. Adamus2.2511711113S. Szostok1.57311851WSep 16 · 08:00P. Mecik2.7081190S. Szostok1.411113113WSep 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek3.2081111592S. Szostok1.27116911113WSep 16 · 06:25S. Szostok1.0861111113K. Kowalski5.75119851LSep 16 · 04:50S. Szostok1.7061161182M. Lebek1.95118117113WSep 16 · 04:00M. Paszkiewicz2.4268100S. Szostok1.461111123LSep 16 · 02:45S. Szostok1.12914861K. Kowalski5.10111211113WSep 16 · 01:10S. Szostok1.8611125113M. Tkocz1.837101171WSep 16 · 24:00S. Szostok1.881012117113P. Polok1.82121091162
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