TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136291
Played Sep 16Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.08
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611119118115––
Kamil Kowalski
Away
5.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:34 and never touched — 68.4% is still 68.4%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
68.4%
68.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
611119118115––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 4–2 Kamil Kowalski Kamil Kowalski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (84%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Szostok
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1510 vs Kowalski 994
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 516 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Kowalski 20%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 50% vs Kowalski 10%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -1 · Kowalski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (60%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.08 / Kowalski 5.75
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Szostok)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13136291
Szostok1.08
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 321 of 498
Up 2–0, closes it94% 123 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it79% 204 of 257
Kowalski5.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog15% won 18 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSzostok4wins
AwayKowalski2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSzostok leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok66.7%2 of 3
AwayKowalski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok3Kowalski3n = 6split evenly
S2Szostok3Kowalski3n = 6split evenly
S3Szostok4Kowalski2n = 6Szostok took 4 of 6
S4Szostok4Kowalski2n = 6Szostok took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSzostokKowalskiS − KBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match41.239.3+1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime922 / 1575 vs 18 / 12958.5%14%922 / 1575 vs 18 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.31.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.332.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.08/Kowalski 5.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.4%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 16 · 06:25S. Szostok3961111113K. Kowalski33119851
LSep 16 · 02:45S. Szostok37914861K. Kowalski45111211113
WAug 6 · 14:20S. Szostok4011711113K. Kowalski33811771
LAug 6 · 08:10S. Szostok3911461172K. Kowalski47811116113
WAug 1 · 24:10S. Szostok511011118113K. Kowalski4912991182
WJul 31 · 20:30S. Szostok4111811113K. Kowalski29811461
S. Szostok10
WSep 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek3.2081111592S. Szostok1.27116911113LSep 16 · 04:50S. Szostok1.7061161182M. Lebek1.95118117113WSep 16 · 04:00M. Paszkiewicz2.4268100S. Szostok1.461111123LSep 16 · 02:45S. Szostok1.12914861K. Kowalski5.10111211113WSep 16 · 01:10S. Szostok1.8611125113M. Tkocz1.837101171WSep 16 · 24:00S. Szostok1.881012117113P. Polok1.82121091162WSep 15 · 22:25S. Szostok1.90315611113J. Orszulik1.80111311862WSep 15 · 21:10S. Szostok1.711111113M. Lebek2.009990LSep 15 · 05:05K. Adamus2.0011611113S. Szostok1.71711791LSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143
K. Kowalski10
LSep 16 · 07:35K. Kowalski4.755580M. Lebek1.141111113LSep 16 · 05:10M. Paszkiewicz1.221011911133K. Kowalski3.75127113112LSep 16 · 03:35P. Mecik1.30111011113K. Kowalski3.10812771WSep 16 · 02:45S. Szostok1.12914861K. Kowalski5.10111211113LSep 16 · 01:35K. Kowalski5.459111151M. Lebek1.0911138113LSep 16 · 24:25M. Tkocz1.1071111123K. Kowalski5.401145101LSep 15 · 23:10P. Polok1.071112113K. Kowalski6.2041070LSep 15 · 21:35J. Orszulik1.161111113K. Kowalski4.208870LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891
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