TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145919
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111191181012911
Oliver Vincenec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Nowak at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 20–11 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:32What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Nowak
Wrong
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1266 vs Vincenec 1325
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Vincenec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Vincenec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak +1 · Vincenec -3
Vincenec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nowak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.73 / Vincenec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nowak)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13145919
Nowak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 48 of 68
Vincenec2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 184 of 459
Down 0–1, comes back23% 63 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak6wins
AwayVincenec4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak83.3%5 of 6
AwayVincenec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak6Vincenec4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S2Nowak5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak6Vincenec4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Nowak6Vincenec3n = 9Nowak took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakVincenecN − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.135.4+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1734 vs 667 / 146838.8%45.4%672 / 1734 vs 667 / 1468Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakNowak 1.73/Vincenec 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak3611113113O. Vincenec33791161
WSep 13 · 21:55J. Nowak4111411153O. Vincenec367115131
WAug 8 · 04:50J. Nowak4291111113O. Vincenec28114581
WJul 30 · 09:25J. Nowak4211911113O. Vincenec34711791
LJul 30 · 03:25J. Nowak33117871O. Vincenec3961111113
WJul 29 · 06:25J. Nowak4111118113O. Vincenec33791161
LJul 7 · 06:00J. Nowak50121191172O. Vincenec47145116113
WJun 19 · 03:35J. Nowak331111113O. Vincenec238960
LMay 14 · 22:50J. Nowak44111211101O. Vincenec4213143123
LApr 12 · 15:05J. Nowak29471171O. Vincenec3911116113
J. Nowak10
LSep 18 · 05:15J. Nowak2.50121110141S. Szostok1.5014512163LSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus1.80111011113J. Nowak1.91912781WSep 15 · 08:45W. Urban1.5711471172J. Nowak2.17711118113LSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak1.9011813101J. Kaczmarek1.80131111123LSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151WSep 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.60118119102J. Nowak1.41711711123LSep 15 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.8311114113J. Nowak1.83891161WSep 14 · 05:05A. Ruszkiewicz1.84810110J. Nowak1.801112133WSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak2.1111113113O. Vincenec1.60791161LSep 14 · 02:45O. Jadach1.331111113J. Nowak2.857940
O. Vincenec10
WSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113LSep 17 · 08:00O. Vincenec2.60143751O. Jadach1.39121111113LSep 17 · 06:45O. Vincenec2.655118101J. Pruszkowski1.3911711123LSep 17 · 05:35O. Vincenec2.255690M. Lebek1.521111113WSep 17 · 04:25P. Adamus1.70118119102O. Vincenec1.95711511123WSep 17 · 03:35O. Vincenec1.551211811113O. Sokolowski2.3014511982LSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113LSep 17 · 24:45O. Vincenec2.60981161J. Pruszkowski1.4111115113WSep 16 · 23:35O. Vincenec2.2011118123M. Lebek1.577911101LSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak2.1111113113O. Vincenec1.60791161
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
O. Vincenec
Sep 18 · 06:05O. Vincenec2.00J. Pelka1.73—Sep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.25S. Szostok1.57—Sep 18 · 08:35O. Vincenec2.00P. Adamus1.73—Sep 18 · 09:25O. Vincenec3.00K. Hetnar1.36—Sep 18 · 11:00O. Vincenec2.00W. Urban1.73—Sep 18 · 12:15O. Vincenec1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 18 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.25S. Szostok1.57—Sep 18 · 14:40O. Vincenec2.00J. Pelka1.73—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.