TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13146073
Played Sep 18Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189111198111214
Wojciech Urban
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Adamus above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 104 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 63.3%
104 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Adamus 18–6 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-6 in 24
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1454 vs Urban 1399
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Urban 40%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 80% vs Urban 40%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +3 · Urban -1
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.57 / Urban 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Adamus)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13146073
Adamus1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 200 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it99% 98 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it79% 151 of 192
Urban2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 212 of 522
Down 0–1, comes back19% 53 of 286
Down 0–2, comes back6% 11 of 173
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus7wins
AwayUrban3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus83.3%5 of 6
AwayUrban50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus6Urban4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Adamus5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus7Urban3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Adamus4Urban3n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusUrbanA − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.433.9+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 665 vs 762 / 161455.5%47.2%369 / 665 vs 762 / 1614Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.57/Urban 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 02:45P. Adamus4391111123W. Urban341194101
WAug 30 · 23:05P. Adamus47117117113W. Urban3841191132
WAug 29 · 05:10P. Adamus4311711143W. Urban387118121
WAug 25 · 01:30P. Adamus341111123W. Urban2358100
WAug 24 · 19:55P. Adamus331111113W. Urban185490
LAug 22 · 04:25P. Adamus29101180W. Urban361213113
WAug 20 · 08:45P. Adamus44111011123W. Urban335126101
LAug 18 · 03:55P. Adamus3761110101W. Urban4311812123
WAug 17 · 21:55P. Adamus3851111113W. Urban36117991
LAug 15 · 08:45P. Adamus36118891W. Urban4071111113
P. Adamus10
LSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus1.61871161J. Pelka2.2011116113WSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus1.80111011113J. Nowak1.91912781WSep 18 · 03:00P. Adamus2.2511711113S. Szostok1.57311851WSep 17 · 08:45P. Adamus1.381111123O. Sokolowski2.6567100LSep 17 · 07:10P. Adamus2.3614780O. Jadach1.481611113WSep 17 · 06:00P. Adamus2.2011119113J. Pruszkowski1.60761181LSep 17 · 04:25P. Adamus1.70118119102O. Vincenec1.95711511123WSep 17 · 03:10P. Adamus1.80111278113M. Lebek1.90810111172WSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113WSep 17 · 01:10O. Jadach1.60491171P. Adamus2.1011111113
W. Urban10
WSep 18 · 06:30J. Nowak2.38761581W. Urban1.53111113113LSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750LSep 16 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.20111213113W. Urban1.616141181LSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113WSep 16 · 12:15I. Szymanski3.50111231162W. Urban1.28814119113LSep 16 · 11:00K. Adamus1.671113123W. Urban2.10611100WSep 16 · 09:25R. Gajda1.831013891W. Urban1.83121111113LSep 16 · 08:35I. Szymanski3.751191511113W. Urban1.2591117892WSep 16 · 07:20W. Urban2.10911811123P. Gumulinski1.67119117102
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