TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138968
Played Sep 16Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119911119114
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
911119911119114
H2H Jerzy Pelka 8–2 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Pelka beat Kurek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Pelka
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1351 vs Kurek 1415
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 20% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 30% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +1 · Kurek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.90 / Kurek 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurek)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13138968
Pelka1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 78 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Kurek1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 208 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it94% 96 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 144 of 171
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka8wins
AwayKurek2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka85.7%6 of 7
AwayKurek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka7Kurek3n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S2Pelka7Kurek3n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S3Pelka5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S4Pelka7Kurek1n = 8Pelka took 7 of 8
S5Pelka2Kurek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaKurekP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.234.9+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 924 vs 411 / 81746.4%50.3%429 / 924 vs 411 / 817Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekPelka 1.90/Kurek 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka51911911113P. Kurek4411911942
WSep 16 · 06:45J. Pelka4411139113P. Kurek399111181
WAug 25 · 15:55J. Pelka3511112113P. Kurek31791141
LAug 25 · 09:55J. Pelka45118115102P. Kurek46711511123
LJul 22 · 18:45J. Pelka3793111132P. Kurek42111154113
WJun 23 · 06:25J. Pelka3811115113P. Kurek33781171
WFeb 1 · 06:55J. Pelka331111113P. Kurek197750
WJan 25 · 07:25J. Pelka541191211113P. Kurek3931114562
WDec 6 · 07:00J. Pelka361213113P. Kurek27101160
WNov 19 · 04:35J. Pelka3961111113P. Kurek29118641
J. Pelka10
WSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780LSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123LSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143LSep 16 · 07:55J. Pelka1.72111110662M. Sikon2.00151211113WSep 16 · 06:45P. Kurek1.809111181J. Pelka1.9111139113WSep 16 · 05:55J. Pelka2.601111113K. Hetnar1.414680LSep 11 · 14:20J. Pelka1.531731361P. Slosarczyk2.38191111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 16 · 15:30M. Rus3.405440P. Kurek1.241111113WSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780LSep 16 · 13:10P. Kurek1.65611671M. Sikon2.0511911113LSep 16 · 12:20B. Madej3.104111111113P. Kurek1.2911913972WSep 16 · 11:05P. Kurek2.2512611113K. Hetnar1.571011771WSep 16 · 09:30P. Kurek1.261211113M. Rus3.2510740LSep 16 · 08:20P. Kurek1.3171060B. Madej2.951112113LSep 16 · 06:45P. Kurek1.809111181J. Pelka1.9111139113WSep 16 · 05:30P. Kurek1.571111113M. Sikon2.257960WSep 14 · 13:55M. Sikon2.50411981P. Kurek1.5011511113
Upcoming Matches
J. Pelka
Nothing scheduled
P. Kurek
Sep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.73W. Ptak2.00—Sep 17 · 04:10P. Kurek1.22I. Szymanski4.00—Sep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.38P. Gumulinski1.53—Sep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.14K. Kowalski5.00—Sep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.20L. Oracz1.61—Sep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.73W. Ptak2.00—Sep 17 · 10:10P. Kurek2.20L. Oracz1.61—Sep 17 · 11:25P. Kurek2.38P. Gumulinski1.53—Sep 17 · 12:40P. Kurek1.14K. Kowalski5.00—Sep 17 · 13:55P. Kurek1.22I. Szymanski4.00—
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