TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13148329
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
2.90
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811911––––
Marian Lebek
Away
1.27
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
61 points played in total.
Set by set
1012811911––––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 20–59 Marian Lebek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 20 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:06What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (70%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-59 in 79
Lebek
Correct
gap of 39 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1373 vs Lebek 1432
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 100% vs Lebek 60%
Kaczmarek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 70% vs Lebek 40%
Kaczmarek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +5 · Lebek -1
Kaczmarek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (60%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.90 / Lebek 1.27
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Lebek)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13148329
Kaczmarek2.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 160 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back17% 54 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Lebek1.27
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 242 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it97% 164 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it83% 214 of 259
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek2wins
AwayLebek8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLebek88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek1Lebek9n = 10Lebek took 9 of 10
S2Kaczmarek1Lebek9n = 10Lebek took 9 of 10
S3Kaczmarek2Lebek8n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Lebek1n = 3Kaczmarek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekLebekK − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match26.635.3−8.7per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime487 / 1318 vs 852 / 145937%58.4%487 / 1318 vs 852 / 1459Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekKaczmarek 2.90/Lebek 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.9%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2710890M. Lebek341211113
WSep 16 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek4111811113M. Lebek38911991
LSep 10 · 04:20J. Kaczmarek2591240M. Lebek361114113
LSep 9 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek206590M. Lebek331111113
LSep 3 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek226880M. Lebek331111113
LAug 28 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek322111091M. Lebek3911512113
LAug 26 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek115330M. Lebek331111113
WAug 13 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek47861111113M. Lebek4011116662
LAug 12 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek154740M. Lebek331111113
LAug 6 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek2691070M. Lebek341112113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 18 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek3.301114113P. Polok1.2791290WSep 18 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.351181110123M. Adamus1.52511812102WSep 18 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.5511118113P. Kurek1.45331171WSep 18 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.3291111153Y. Fomin1.491197131WSep 16 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz1.769590J. Kaczmarek1.901111113WSep 16 · 19:35M. Adamus1.53811891J. Kaczmarek2.2311811113LSep 16 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.299111110113J. Kaczmarek3.1011581272WSep 16 · 16:50S. Krupa1.498111371J. Kaczmarek2.3211915113LSep 16 · 15:10O. Sokolowski1.59116812123J. Kaczmarek2.138111110102WSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860
M. Lebek10
LSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660LSep 18 · 06:25M. Lebek2.10118851P. Polok1.6551111113WSep 18 · 04:50M. Lebek1.5711119133Y. Fomin2.209411111WSep 18 · 04:00M. Adamus2.25911571M. Lebek1.5511811113WSep 18 · 02:45M. Lebek2.141112113P. Polok1.5861070LSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113LSep 18 · 24:00M. Lebek1.65811891M. Adamus2.1011811113LSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113WSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272LSep 17 · 08:20J. Pruszkowski1.8361211113M. Lebek1.831110861
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