TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147411
Played Sep 18Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118811911––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
811118811911––
H2H Marian Lebek 40–33 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 33 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:06What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-33 in 73
Lebek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1438 vs Adamus 1444
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 40% vs Adamus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 50% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek -1 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.65 / Adamus 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Lebek)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13147411
Lebek1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 242 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it97% 164 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it83% 214 of 259
Adamus2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 172 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 45 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek100%7 of 7
AwayAdamus100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek7Adamus3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Lebek8Adamus2n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S3Lebek5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Lebek4Adamus4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekAdamusL − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.4+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime850 / 1458 vs 801 / 163658.3%49%850 / 1458 vs 801 / 1636Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.65/Adamus 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 04:00M. Lebek4111118113M. Adamus34781181
WSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek341112113M. Adamus2781090
LSep 8 · 22:00M. Lebek4391111662M. Adamus46116711113
WAug 28 · 08:00M. Lebek3911611113M. Adamus34511991
WAug 21 · 02:20M. Lebek4011117113M. Adamus30481171
LAug 13 · 08:20M. Lebek29511671M. Adamus3911611113
WAug 13 · 02:20M. Lebek461110113113M. Adamus4281261152
WAug 12 · 04:50M. Lebek43111110113M. Adamus34681281
WJul 31 · 07:10M. Lebek341111123M. Adamus2789100
LJul 30 · 08:50M. Lebek34611891M. Adamus4111811113
M. Lebek10
LSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113LSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113WSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272LSep 17 · 08:20J. Pruszkowski1.8361211113M. Lebek1.831110861LSep 17 · 07:35O. Sokolowski3.15711129113M. Lebek1.28116101132WSep 17 · 05:35O. Vincenec2.255690M. Lebek1.521111113WSep 17 · 04:50O. Jadach1.756470M. Lebek1.901111113LSep 17 · 03:10P. Adamus1.80111278113M. Lebek1.90810111172WSep 17 · 02:20J. Pruszkowski1.635111071M. Lebek2.0511912113WSep 17 · 01:35O. Sokolowski2.955121161M. Lebek1.3511148113
M. Adamus10
WSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 17 · 23:10M. Adamus2.3513124113P. Polok1.5011101161LSep 17 · 22:00M. Adamus1.57611861G. Jurowicz2.1511811113WSep 16 · 20:45O. Sokolowski1.855911121M. Adamus1.8011118143LSep 16 · 19:35M. Adamus1.53811891J. Kaczmarek2.2311811113LSep 16 · 18:25S. Krupa1.8311118113M. Adamus1.86741191LSep 16 · 17:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.001112113M. Adamus1.7391080WSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.61118641M. Adamus2.2071111113WSep 15 · 16:20M. Adamus1.969111111143R. Gajda1.70113135122WSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332
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