TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147407
Played Sep 18Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191189117111012
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1191189117111012
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 37–26 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 26 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-26 in 63
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 11 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1481 vs Adamus 1456
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 80% vs Adamus 60%
Koczyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 80% vs Adamus 60%
Koczyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +2 · Adamus +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.52 / Adamus 2.30
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Koczyba)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13147407
Koczyba1.52
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 323 of 491
Up 2–0, closes it94% 168 of 178
Up 1–0, closes it81% 229 of 284
Adamus2.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 172 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 45 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba40%2 of 5
AwayAdamus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S3Koczyba4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba2Adamus7n = 9Adamus took 7 of 9
S5Koczyba2Adamus1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdamusK − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.8−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1316 vs 802 / 163665.4%49%860 / 1316 vs 802 / 1636Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.52/Adamus 2.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.6%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba29118641M. Adamus4071111113
LAug 23 · 08:00M. Koczyba43121146102M. Adamus461021111123
WAug 20 · 18:45M. Koczyba43111110113M. Adamus31571271
LAug 13 · 24:45M. Koczyba3851110121M. Adamus4611912143
WAug 7 · 18:30M. Koczyba4291111113M. Adamus32117861
WAug 2 · 08:20M. Koczyba53316117163M. Adamus581114811142
WJul 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba581110148153M. Adamus568121211132
LJun 25 · 02:00M. Koczyba1512120M. Adamus361111143
LJun 24 · 15:35M. Koczyba34117881M. Adamus4291111113
LJun 16 · 20:00M. Koczyba31581171M. Adamus4111118113
M. Koczyba10
WSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981WSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113LSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113WSep 17 · 20:00W. Jozala4.255640M. Koczyba1.161111113WSep 17 · 19:10G. Jurowicz2.9551020M. Koczyba1.361112113WSep 17 · 18:25M. Koczyba1.851111123P. Zemla1.7889100WSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182LSep 17 · 16:00W. Pytlas2.2113115113M. Koczyba1.551181171WSep 16 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.501112113S. Krupa2.3241070
M. Adamus10
WSep 18 · 24:00M. Lebek1.65811891M. Adamus2.1011811113WSep 17 · 23:10M. Adamus2.3513124113P. Polok1.5011101161LSep 17 · 22:00M. Adamus1.57611861G. Jurowicz2.1511811113WSep 16 · 20:45O. Sokolowski1.855911121M. Adamus1.8011118143LSep 16 · 19:35M. Adamus1.53811891J. Kaczmarek2.2311811113LSep 16 · 18:25S. Krupa1.8311118113M. Adamus1.86741191LSep 16 · 17:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.001112113M. Adamus1.7391080WSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.61118641M. Adamus2.2071111113WSep 15 · 16:20M. Adamus1.969111111143R. Gajda1.70113135122WSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332
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