TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147402
Played Sep 18Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116116119––
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
711116116119––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 3–3 Grzegorz Jurowicz Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Koczyba beat Jurowicz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1469 vs Jurowicz 1362
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Jurowicz 80%
Jurowicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 70% vs Jurowicz 50%
Koczyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Jurowicz +4
Jurowicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jurowicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.45 / Jurowicz 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Koczyba)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13147402
Koczyba1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 323 of 491
Up 2–0, closes it94% 168 of 178
Up 1–0, closes it81% 229 of 284
Jurowicz2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKoczyba3wins
AwayJurowicz3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba66.7%2 of 3
AwayJurowicz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba3Jurowicz3n = 6split evenly
S2Koczyba4Jurowicz2n = 6Koczyba took 4 of 6
S3Koczyba4Jurowicz2n = 6Koczyba took 4 of 6
S4Koczyba2Jurowicz1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKoczybaJurowiczK − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match35.232.2+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime859 / 1316 vs 313 / 79065.3%39.6%859 / 1316 vs 313 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.45/Jurowicz 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 17 · 19:10M. Koczyba341112113G. Jurowicz1751020
LSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba41111051142G. Jurowicz46412118113
WSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba341112113G. Jurowicz2371060
LSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba4151111952G. Jurowicz43117311113
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba2413560G. Jurowicz371511113
WDec 24 · 01:45M. Koczyba3741111113G. Jurowicz27113491
M. Koczyba10
LSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981WSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113LSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113WSep 17 · 20:00W. Jozala4.255640M. Koczyba1.161111113WSep 17 · 19:10G. Jurowicz2.9551020M. Koczyba1.361112113WSep 17 · 18:25M. Koczyba1.851111123P. Zemla1.7889100WSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182LSep 17 · 16:00W. Pytlas2.2113115113M. Koczyba1.551181171WSep 16 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.501112113S. Krupa2.3241070
G. Jurowicz10
WSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113WSep 18 · 24:25G. Jurowicz3.15612116113P. Polok1.30111091192WSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451WSep 17 · 22:00M. Adamus1.57611861G. Jurowicz2.1511811113LSep 17 · 20:45G. Jurowicz3.203250P. Zemla1.271111113LSep 17 · 19:10G. Jurowicz2.9551020M. Koczyba1.361112113LSep 17 · 18:00G. Jurowicz2.50331681W. Pytlas1.43111114113WSep 17 · 16:25G. Jurowicz1.681111113W. Jozala2.058560LSep 17 · 15:10G. Jurowicz2.7571191152M. Tkocz1.40118117113LSep 16 · 02:10K. Schaniel2.001111113G. Jurowicz1.735690
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