TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147417
Played Sep 17Finished
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171214114115––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:11 and never touched — 71.1% is still 71.1%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
71.1%
71.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1171214114115––
H2H Grzegorz Jurowicz 5–6 Marek Tkocz Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Tkocz beat Jurowicz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jurowicz 1312 vs Tkocz 1405
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jurowicz 40% vs Tkocz 60%
Tkocz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jurowicz 30% vs Tkocz 50%
Tkocz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jurowicz +1 · Tkocz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJurowicz 2.50 / Tkocz 1.45
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Tkocz)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13147417
Jurowicz2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89
Tkocz1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 299 of 444
Up 2–0, closes it95% 169 of 178
Up 1–0, closes it84% 244 of 289
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJurowicz5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJurowicz100%4 of 4
AwayTkocz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jurowicz4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S2Jurowicz5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S3Jurowicz6Tkocz4n = 10Jurowicz took 6 of 10
S4Jurowicz3Tkocz6n = 9Tkocz took 6 of 9
S5Jurowicz3Tkocz1n = 4Jurowicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJurowiczTkoczJ − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.838.8−3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJurowiczTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 787 vs 776 / 116939.4%66.4%310 / 787 vs 776 / 1169Avg sets wonper match1.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczJurowicz 2.50/Tkocz 1.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jurowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 15:10G. Jurowicz4371191152M. Tkocz48118117113
WSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz331111113M. Tkocz217590
LSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz32871161M. Tkocz3711114113
WDec 25 · 14:55G. Jurowicz43116114113M. Tkocz4271161172
LDec 25 · 06:30G. Jurowicz27411751M. Tkocz3811511113
LDec 24 · 01:00G. Jurowicz30512581M. Tkocz43111011113
WDec 23 · 20:35G. Jurowicz4111811113M. Tkocz30711841
LJun 23 · 15:55G. Jurowicz23521241M. Tkocz43111110113
WJun 23 · 09:55G. Jurowicz46581111113M. Tkocz4411115982
WJun 9 · 11:30G. Jurowicz40111134113M. Tkocz4259111162
G. Jurowicz10
WSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113WSep 18 · 24:25G. Jurowicz3.15612116113P. Polok1.30111091192WSep 17 · 22:00M. Adamus1.57611861G. Jurowicz2.1511811113LSep 17 · 20:45G. Jurowicz3.203250P. Zemla1.271111113LSep 17 · 19:10G. Jurowicz2.9551020M. Koczyba1.361112113LSep 17 · 18:00G. Jurowicz2.50331681W. Pytlas1.43111114113WSep 17 · 16:25G. Jurowicz1.681111113W. Jozala2.058560LSep 17 · 15:10G. Jurowicz2.7571191152M. Tkocz1.40118117113LSep 16 · 02:10K. Schaniel2.001111113G. Jurowicz1.735690LSep 16 · 01:25J. Pruszkowski1.611111113G. Jurowicz2.209730
M. Tkocz10
LSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981LSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272WSep 17 · 20:20W. Pytlas2.191161110102M. Tkocz1.56611612123WSep 17 · 19:35P. Zemla1.79913111122M. Tkocz1.851111139113WSep 17 · 17:35W. Jozala4.1041111692M. Tkocz1.17118911113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182WSep 17 · 15:10G. Jurowicz2.7571191152M. Tkocz1.40118117113LSep 16 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.2511511113M. Tkocz1.55411971LSep 16 · 01:10S. Szostok1.8611125113M. Tkocz1.837101171WSep 16 · 24:25M. Tkocz1.1071111123K. Kowalski5.401145101
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