TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13150127
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
3.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191412119––––
Pawel Polok
Away
1.27
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:10 and never touched — 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
1191412119––––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 0–3 Pawel Polok Jakub Kaczmarek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Polok
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1353 vs Polok 1506
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 80% vs Polok 60%
Kaczmarek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 70% vs Polok 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -1 · Polok +3
Polok
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (60%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 3.30 / Polok 1.27
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13150127
Kaczmarek3.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 160 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back17% 54 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Polok1.27
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 82 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it84% 68 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKaczmarek0wins
AwayPolok3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPolok leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPolok100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek0Polok3n = 3Polok took 3 of 3
S2Kaczmarek1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S3Kaczmarek1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricKaczmarekPolokK − PBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match28.037.7−9.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime486 / 1318 vs 126 / 19436.9%65%486 / 1318 vs 126 / 194Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokKaczmarek 3.30/Polok 1.27
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 14 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek195770P. Polok331111113
LAug 14 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek46111111852P. Polok47137511113
LAug 4 · 19:35J. Kaczmarek194870P. Polok331111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010890M. Lebek1.271211113WSep 18 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.351181110123M. Adamus1.52511812102WSep 18 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.5511118113P. Kurek1.45331171WSep 18 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.3291111153Y. Fomin1.491197131WSep 16 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz1.769590J. Kaczmarek1.901111113WSep 16 · 19:35M. Adamus1.53811891J. Kaczmarek2.2311811113LSep 16 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.299111110113J. Kaczmarek3.1011581272WSep 16 · 16:50S. Krupa1.498111371J. Kaczmarek2.3211915113LSep 16 · 15:10O. Sokolowski1.59116812123J. Kaczmarek2.138111110102WSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860
P. Polok10
WSep 18 · 07:35P. Polok1.4011611143Y. Fomin2.529119121WSep 18 · 06:25M. Lebek2.10118851P. Polok1.6551111113WSep 18 · 05:10M. Adamus2.4091290P. Polok1.511114113LSep 18 · 03:35P. Kurek2.1511611113P. Polok1.60811591LSep 18 · 02:45M. Lebek2.141112113P. Polok1.5861070WSep 18 · 01:35P. Polok1.731111123M. Tkocz1.9255100LSep 18 · 24:25G. Jurowicz3.15612116113P. Polok1.30111091192LSep 17 · 23:10M. Adamus2.3513124113P. Polok1.5011101161WSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113WSep 16 · 02:20P. Polok1.6112411153M. Lebek2.0910119131
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