TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147403
Played Sep 18Finished
Pawel Polok
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151151210––––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.92
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
1151151210––––
H2H Pawel Polok 1–4 Marek Tkocz Pawel Polok has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:03What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (53%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Tkocz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1499 vs Tkocz 1380
Polok
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 60% vs Tkocz 40%
Polok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 60% vs Tkocz 40%
Polok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok -2 · Tkocz -3
Tkocz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.73 / Tkocz 1.92
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polok)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13147403
Polok1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 82 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it84% 68 of 81
Tkocz1.92
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 19 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePolok1wins
AwayTkocz4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderTkocz leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolokn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkocz100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok2Tkocz3n = 5Tkocz took 3 of 5
S2Polok3Tkocz2n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S3Polok2Tkocz3n = 5Tkocz took 3 of 5
S4Polok1Tkocz4n = 5Tkocz took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPolokTkoczP − TBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.041.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 188 vs 776 / 117164.9%66.3%122 / 188 vs 776 / 1171Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.73/Tkocz 1.92
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok346111071M. Tkocz4111712113
WSep 15 · 17:10P. Polok4611159113M. Tkocz398131171
LAug 20 · 22:25P. Polok31116681M. Tkocz3851111113
LAug 4 · 21:35P. Polok3871111542M. Tkocz45113911113
LAug 4 · 15:35P. Polok36881191M. Tkocz4211119113
P. Polok10
LSep 18 · 02:45M. Lebek2.141112113P. Polok1.5861070LSep 18 · 24:25G. Jurowicz3.15612116113P. Polok1.30111091192LSep 17 · 23:10M. Adamus2.3513124113P. Polok1.5011101161WSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113WSep 16 · 02:20P. Polok1.6112411153M. Lebek2.0910119131WSep 16 · 24:45J. Orszulik2.458770P. Polok1.491111113LSep 16 · 24:00S. Szostok1.881012117113P. Polok1.82121091162WSep 15 · 23:10P. Polok1.071112113K. Kowalski6.2041070LSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113WSep 15 · 20:45R. Adach3.655150P. Polok1.221111113
M. Tkocz10
WSep 18 · 02:20M. Adamus2.45661161M. Tkocz1.4411118113LSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981LSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451LSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272WSep 17 · 20:20W. Pytlas2.191161110102M. Tkocz1.56611612123WSep 17 · 19:35P. Zemla1.79913111122M. Tkocz1.851111139113WSep 17 · 17:35W. Jozala4.1041111692M. Tkocz1.17118911113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182WSep 17 · 15:10G. Jurowicz2.7571191152M. Tkocz1.40118117113WSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113
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