TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147400
Played Sep 18Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
2.45
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611118611––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
611611118611––
H2H Mariusz Adamus 19–29 Marek Tkocz Mariusz Adamus has won 19 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (63%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-29 in 48
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 10 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1468 vs Tkocz 1371
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Tkocz 20%
Adamus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Tkocz 40%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +3 · Tkocz -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.45 / Tkocz 1.44
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Tkocz)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13147400
Adamus2.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 172 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 45 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Tkocz1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 299 of 444
Up 2–0, closes it95% 169 of 178
Up 1–0, closes it84% 244 of 289
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus3wins
AwayTkocz7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkocz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Adamus3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S3Adamus5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus3Tkocz3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusTkoczA − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.936.2−4.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime803 / 1636 vs 776 / 117249.1%66.2%803 / 1636 vs 776 / 1172Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczAdamus 2.45/Tkocz 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.6%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 24:45M. Adamus4181111113M. Tkocz34118871
LAug 21 · 24:45M. Adamus28381161M. Tkocz4111118113
WAug 20 · 17:10M. Adamus331111113M. Tkocz185850
WAug 18 · 20:45M. Adamus44111011123M. Tkocz399128101
LJul 31 · 08:30M. Adamus4511851292M. Tkocz507111110113
LJul 8 · 06:45M. Adamus31971141M. Tkocz3711114113
LJun 16 · 21:35M. Adamus175480M. Tkocz331111113
LJun 16 · 18:25M. Adamus187920M. Tkocz331111113
LJun 4 · 20:00M. Adamus37813881M. Tkocz44111111113
LJun 2 · 23:10M. Adamus259970M. Tkocz331111113
M. Adamus10
WSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 18 · 24:00M. Lebek1.65811891M. Adamus2.1011811113WSep 17 · 23:10M. Adamus2.3513124113P. Polok1.5011101161LSep 17 · 22:00M. Adamus1.57611861G. Jurowicz2.1511811113WSep 16 · 20:45O. Sokolowski1.855911121M. Adamus1.8011118143LSep 16 · 19:35M. Adamus1.53811891J. Kaczmarek2.2311811113LSep 16 · 18:25S. Krupa1.8311118113M. Adamus1.86741191LSep 16 · 17:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.001112113M. Adamus1.7391080WSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.61118641M. Adamus2.2071111113WSep 15 · 16:20M. Adamus1.969111111143R. Gajda1.70113135122
M. Tkocz10
LSep 18 · 01:35P. Polok1.731111123M. Tkocz1.9255100LSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981LSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451LSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272WSep 17 · 20:20W. Pytlas2.191161110102M. Tkocz1.56611612123WSep 17 · 19:35P. Zemla1.79913111122M. Tkocz1.851111139113WSep 17 · 17:35W. Jozala4.1041111692M. Tkocz1.17118911113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182WSep 17 · 15:10G. Jurowicz2.7571191152M. Tkocz1.40118117113LSep 16 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.2511511113M. Tkocz1.55411971
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