TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145310
Played Sep 17Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113114112––––
Martin Cerny
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 69.7% is still 69.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
69.7%
69.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 42 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 69.7%
42 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 27–11 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 11 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:42What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-11 in 38
Kadavy
Correct
gap of 16 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1767 vs Cerny 1837
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 60% vs Cerny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Cerny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy -1 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kadavy) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.44 / Cerny 2.63
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kadavy)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13145310
Kadavy1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it85% 55 of 65
Cerny2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 46 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy7wins
AwayCerny3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy100%7 of 7
AwayCerny100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy7Cerny3n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S2Kadavy8Cerny2n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S3Kadavy9Cerny1n = 10Kadavy took 9 of 10
S4Kadavy2Cerny1n = 3Kadavy took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyCernyK − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.228.3+7.9per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 309 vs 485 / 84258.9%57.6%182 / 309 vs 485 / 842Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.44/Cerny 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy379711101M. Cerny4311119123
WSep 14 · 21:25O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny156180
LSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy4068111142M. Cerny50111189113
LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy48912511112M. Cerny481110113133
WSep 4 · 21:25O. Kadavy371511113M. Cerny2913790
WJul 12 · 16:25O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny216690
WJul 10 · 22:45O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny216960
WJul 10 · 20:25O. Kadavy341111123M. Cerny1954100
WJul 8 · 14:55O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny145450
WJul 7 · 06:55O. Kadavy341112113M. Cerny2381050
O. Kadavy10
LSep 17 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.61612100J. Zacharda2.201114123LSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.619370D. Bochnak2.201111113LSep 15 · 22:25J. Zlamal1.601111113O. Kadavy2.206790WSep 15 · 20:55M. Stusek1.734470O. Kadavy2.001111113WSep 15 · 20:25T. Vorisek1.67412111182O. Kadavy2.101110137113LSep 15 · 19:25O. Kadavy3.2511117982J. Zlamal1.33991111113WSep 15 · 18:25O. Kadavy1.531117113L. Soucek2.3841590LSep 15 · 16:55L. Soucek2.20119811123O. Kadavy1.61511119102WSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc1.8081080O. Kadavy1.911112113WSep 15 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.5311912113T. Flicek2.388111051
M. Cerny10
LSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113WSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113LSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113WSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy1.309711101M. Cerny3.4011119123LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113LSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113
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