TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13146654
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191121012611911
Jachym Zacharda
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Zacharda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jachym Zacharda at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 19–16 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cerny beat Zacharda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:28What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-16 in 35
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1854 vs Zacharda 1674
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Zacharda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 50% vs Zacharda 70%
Zacharda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Zacharda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.53 / Zacharda 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13146654
Cerny1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 168 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it98% 83 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 119 of 139
Zacharda2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 23 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny6wins
AwayZacharda4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%6 of 6
AwayZacharda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny6Zacharda4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Cerny7Zacharda3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Cerny8Zacharda2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Cerny2Zacharda3n = 5Zacharda took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyZachardaC − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.830.2+6.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 841 vs 126 / 26757.7%47.2%485 / 841 vs 126 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.53/Zacharda 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 12:50M. Cerny43111110113J. Zacharda33851281
LSep 14 · 19:25M. Cerny4011154101J. Zacharda49131311123
LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny33951181J. Zacharda4111118113
WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda148330
WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny361111143J. Zacharda2163120
LSep 11 · 10:20M. Cerny48881111102J. Zacharda49111196123
WSep 8 · 13:25M. Cerny341211113J. Zacharda1910270
WSep 7 · 10:55M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda155550
WSep 4 · 19:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda185670
LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny3511101131J. Zacharda4313127113
M. Cerny10
LSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.441111113M. Cerny2.633420WSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113LSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113WSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy1.309711101M. Cerny3.4011119123LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113LSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113
J. Zacharda10
WSep 17 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.61612100J. Zacharda2.201114123WSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113LSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113WSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113WSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113LSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781WSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101WSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113
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