TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145255
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911711311––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:24 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 72 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 65.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 19–17 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Zacharda beat Cerny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-17 in 36
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1818 vs Zacharda 1683
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Zacharda 60%
Zacharda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 40% vs Zacharda 70%
Zacharda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -2 · Zacharda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.53 / Zacharda 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Cerny)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13145255
Cerny1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 168 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it98% 83 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 119 of 139
Zacharda2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 23 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny6wins
AwayZacharda4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny85.7%6 of 7
AwayZacharda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Zacharda3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny8Zacharda2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Cerny7Zacharda3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Cerny2Zacharda3n = 5Zacharda took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyZachardaC − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.030.4+7.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 843 vs 127 / 26957.5%47.2%485 / 843 vs 127 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.53/Zacharda 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny47111110692J. Zacharda45921211113
WSep 17 · 12:50M. Cerny43111110113J. Zacharda33851281
LSep 14 · 19:25M. Cerny4011154101J. Zacharda49131311123
LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny33951181J. Zacharda4111118113
WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda148330
WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny361111143J. Zacharda2163120
LSep 11 · 10:20M. Cerny48881111102J. Zacharda49111196123
WSep 8 · 13:25M. Cerny341211113J. Zacharda1910270
WSep 7 · 10:55M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda155550
WSep 4 · 19:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda185670
M. Cerny10
LSep 17 · 18:05O. Kadavy1.331113113M. Cerny3.2551170WSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113LSep 17 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.441111113M. Cerny2.633420LSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113WSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113LSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113WSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy1.309711101M. Cerny3.4011119123LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113
J. Zacharda10
WSep 17 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.61612100J. Zacharda2.201114123LSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113WSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113LSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113WSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113WSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113LSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781WSep 14 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.44118511J. Zacharda2.6341111113WSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101
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