TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145247
Played Sep 17Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311711––––
David Bochnak
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:24 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 56.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 67–36 David Bochnak David Bochnak has won 36 of their 103 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:24What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kadavy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-36 in 103
Kadavy
Wrong
gap of 31 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1784 vs Bochnak 1818
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 60% vs Bochnak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Bochnak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +1 · Bochnak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kadavy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.61 / Bochnak 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Kadavy)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13145247
Kadavy1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it85% 55 of 65
Bochnak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 18 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy8wins
AwayBochnak2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy100%3 of 3
AwayBochnak28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy3Bochnak7n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S2Kadavy6Bochnak4n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S3Kadavy7Bochnak3n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S4Kadavy6Bochnak1n = 7Kadavy took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyBochnakK − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.433.9+5.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 310 vs 368 / 59259%62.2%183 / 310 vs 368 / 592Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.61/Bochnak 2.20
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 18:55O. Kadavy2110740D. Bochnak341211113
WSep 4 · 18:55O. Kadavy4111811113D. Bochnak24611611
WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy4181111113D. Bochnak36119791
WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy4391111123D. Bochnak381189101
WJul 14 · 16:25O. Kadavy512111113143D. Bochnak49115615122
WJul 12 · 14:55O. Kadavy4211911113D. Bochnak18411031
WJul 10 · 21:25O. Kadavy496111011113D. Bochnak4611712882
WJul 8 · 17:59O. Kadavy4161113113D. Bochnak331151161
LJul 8 · 16:25O. Kadavy3271690D. Bochnak401118113
WJul 5 · 14:30O. Kadavy331111113D. Bochnak218940
O. Kadavy10
LSep 17 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.61612100J. Zacharda2.201114123WSep 17 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.441111113M. Cerny2.633420LSep 15 · 22:25J. Zlamal1.601111113O. Kadavy2.206790WSep 15 · 20:55M. Stusek1.734470O. Kadavy2.001111113WSep 15 · 20:25T. Vorisek1.67412111182O. Kadavy2.101110137113LSep 15 · 19:25O. Kadavy3.2511117982J. Zlamal1.33991111113WSep 15 · 18:25O. Kadavy1.531117113L. Soucek2.3841590LSep 15 · 16:55L. Soucek2.20119811123O. Kadavy1.61511119102WSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc1.8081080O. Kadavy1.911112113WSep 15 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.5311912113T. Flicek2.388111051
D. Bochnak10
WSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113LSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781LSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113WSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740WSep 13 · 21:59D. Bochnak1.201112113M. Kulisek4.3321060WSep 13 · 20:55M. Kulisek4.336720D. Bochnak1.201111113LSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda3.2581111123D. Bochnak1.331166101LSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153WSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133
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