TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13136214
Played Sep 15Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141715119––––
Lukas Soucek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Soucek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Lukas Soucek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 67 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Soucek at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 0–1 Lukas Soucek Ondrej Kadavy has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Soucek beat Kadavy 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:02What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1735 vs Soucek 1568
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 60% vs Soucek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 40% vs Soucek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy -1 · Soucek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kadavy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Soucek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.53 / Soucek 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kadavy)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13136214
Kadavy1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 73 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it84% 53 of 63
Soucek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 4 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKadavy0wins
AwaySoucek1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSoucek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKadavySoucekK − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match46.051.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavySoucekBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 304 vs 78 / 16958.9%46.2%179 / 304 vs 78 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.53/Soucek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 15 · 16:55O. Kadavy46511119102L. Soucek51119811123
O. Kadavy10
WSep 15 · 20:55M. Stusek1.734470O. Kadavy2.001111113WSep 15 · 20:25T. Vorisek1.67412111182O. Kadavy2.101110137113LSep 15 · 19:25O. Kadavy3.2511117982J. Zlamal1.33991111113LSep 15 · 16:55L. Soucek2.20119811123O. Kadavy1.61511119102WSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc1.8081080O. Kadavy1.911112113WSep 15 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.5311912113T. Flicek2.388111051LSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy1.309711101M. Cerny3.4011119123WSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113LSep 14 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.44118511J. Zacharda2.6341111113LSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740
L. Soucek10
WSep 15 · 16:55L. Soucek2.20119811123O. Kadavy1.61511119102WSep 15 · 15:55L. Soucek1.911114113T. Flicek1.8041280LSep 15 · 14:55L. Soucek2.201111881F. Strejc1.6191311113WSep 13 · 10:29T. Vorisek1.531251191L. Soucek2.3814115113LSep 13 · 08:55T. Vorisek1.5711117113L. Soucek2.25541171WSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113LSep 13 · 07:25L. Soucek2.385711141M. Stusek1.5311118163LAug 30 · 18:00F. Strejc1.631111133L. Soucek2.1375110LAug 30 · 16:55L. Soucek2.201041161T. Vorisek1.6112117113LAug 30 · 15:55L. Soucek2.103960M. Stusek1.671111113
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