TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13133973
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukas Soucek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191113811811––
Filip Strejc
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Strejc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Soucek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 82 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Filip Strejc at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Soucek 18–20 Filip Strejc Lukas Soucek has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Strejc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-20 in 38
Strejc
Correct
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Soucek 1551 vs Strejc 1670
Strejc
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Soucek 40% vs Strejc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Soucek 20% vs Strejc 40%
Strejc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Soucek +1 · Strejc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Strejc) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSoucek 2.20 / Strejc 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Strejc)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13133973
Soucek2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog29% won 4 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Strejc1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite40% won 18 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSoucek6wins
AwayStrejc4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSoucek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSoucek85.7%6 of 7
AwayStrejc100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Soucek7Strejc3n = 10Soucek took 7 of 10
S2Soucek4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S3Soucek3Strejc7n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S4Soucek4Strejc2n = 6Soucek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSoucekStrejcSoucek − StrejcBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.7+0.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSoucekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 166 vs 210 / 46345.8%45.4%76 / 166 vs 210 / 463Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrejcSoucek 2.20/Strejc 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Strejc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 08:25L. Soucek4011117113F. Strejc27671131
LAug 30 · 18:00L. Soucek2375110F. Strejc351111133
LAug 30 · 14:55L. Soucek207490F. Strejc331111113
LAug 27 · 18:10L. Soucek175930F. Strejc331111113
WAug 27 · 16:25L. Soucek581115138113F. Strejc54913151162
LApr 8 · 16:55L. Soucek451810981F. Strejc50161211113
WApr 2 · 14:55L. Soucek4113611113F. Strejc361111681
WMar 14 · 09:55L. Soucek391111173F. Strejc2665150
WMar 1 · 12:25L. Soucek44121011113F. Strejc321012551
WFeb 25 · 19:30L. Soucek4512139113F. Strejc4110111191
L. Soucek10
WSep 13 · 10:29T. Vorisek1.531251191L. Soucek2.3814115113LSep 13 · 08:55T. Vorisek1.5711117113L. Soucek2.25541171WSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113LSep 13 · 07:25L. Soucek2.385711141M. Stusek1.5311118163LAug 30 · 18:00F. Strejc1.631111133L. Soucek2.1375110LAug 30 · 16:55L. Soucek2.201041161T. Vorisek1.6112117113LAug 30 · 15:55L. Soucek2.103960M. Stusek1.671111113LAug 30 · 14:55L. Soucek1.807490F. Strejc1.911111113LAug 27 · 18:10L. Soucek1.835930F. Strejc1.831111113LAug 27 · 16:55T. Vorisek1.6751111113L. Soucek2.10116771
F. Strejc10
LSep 13 · 10:04M. Stusek1.6711411133F. Strejc2.109116111WSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek1.73117781F. Strejc2.0091111113LSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113LSep 13 · 06:55T. Vorisek1.53111110113F. Strejc2.38791241WSep 11 · 22:33F. Strejc1.831111133O. Kadavy1.8389110WSep 11 · 21:25T. Vorisek1.6171191162F. Strejc2.20112119113LSep 11 · 20:25F. Strejc1.8371161192O. Kadavy1.83119117113WAug 30 · 18:00F. Strejc1.631111133L. Soucek2.1375110WAug 30 · 14:55L. Soucek1.807490F. Strejc1.911111113WAug 27 · 18:10L. Soucek1.835930F. Strejc1.831111113
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