TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13047446
Played Aug 30Finished
Lukas Soucek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911611––––
Martin Stusek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Soucek above · Martin Stusek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 51 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Martin Stusek at 56.2%
51 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Soucek 13–17 Martin Stusek Lukas Soucek has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Stusek
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Soucek 1544 vs Stusek 1686
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Soucek 20% vs Stusek 40%
Stusek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Soucek 20% vs Stusek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Soucek -3 · Stusek -1
Soucek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSoucek 2.10 / Stusek 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Stusek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13047446
Soucek2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 6 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Stusek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 69 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it74% 55 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSoucek6wins
AwayStusek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSoucek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSoucek83.3%5 of 6
AwayStusek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Soucek6Stusek4n = 10Soucek took 6 of 10
S2Soucek3Stusek7n = 10Stusek took 7 of 10
S3Soucek4Stusek6n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S4Soucek4Stusek2n = 6Soucek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSoucekStusekSoucek − StusekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.436.4−4.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSoucekStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 159 vs 320 / 68246.5%46.9%74 / 159 vs 320 / 682Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekSoucek 2.10/Stusek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 8 · 18:00L. Soucek—129651M. Stusek—101111113
WApr 8 · 15:25L. Soucek—11611113M. Stusek—611781
LApr 2 · 18:10L. Soucek—2450M. Stusek—1111113
LApr 2 · 16:55L. Soucek—9360M. Stusek—1111113
LMar 18 · 18:55L. Soucek—5880M. Stusek—1111113
WMar 18 · 16:25L. Soucek—113117113M. Stusek—91151162
WMar 12 · 17:55L. Soucek—1111123M. Stusek—86100
WMar 4 · 18:58L. Soucek—1011211113M. Stusek—12911982
WMar 4 · 16:25L. Soucek—11812113M. Stusek—8111091
WFeb 14 · 11:10L. Soucek—12114123M. Stusek—10611101
L. Soucek10
LAug 30 · 18:00F. Strejc1.631111133L. Soucek2.1375110LAug 30 · 16:55L. Soucek2.201041161T. Vorisek1.6112117113LAug 30 · 14:55L. Soucek1.807490F. Strejc1.911111113LAug 27 · 18:10L. Soucek1.835930F. Strejc1.831111113LAug 27 · 16:55T. Vorisek1.6751111113L. Soucek2.10116771WAug 27 · 16:25F. Strejc1.57913151162L. Soucek2.251115138113LAug 27 · 15:25L. Soucek2.00710111482T. Flicek1.731112512113LApr 8 · 18:00L. Soucek1.80129651M. Stusek1.91101111113LApr 8 · 16:55F. Strejc1.83161211113L. Soucek1.831810981LApr 8 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.731111113L. Soucek2.001940
M. Stusek10
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113WSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek2.2099110T. Vorisek1.611111133WApr 8 · 18:00L. Soucek1.80129651M. Stusek1.91101111113
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