TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13029496
Played Aug 27Finished
Filip Strejc
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91113151513118611
Lukas Soucek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Strejc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Strejc above · Lukas Soucek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 112 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Filip Strejc at 54.0%
112 points played in total.
H2H Filip Strejc 17–16 Lukas Soucek Lukas Soucek has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Strejc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strejc 1769 vs Soucek 1555
Strejc
Wrong
both rated, 214 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strejc 80% vs Soucek 20%
Strejc
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strejc 80% vs Soucek 20%
Strejc
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strejc -1 · Soucek -4
Soucek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Strejc) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Soucek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrejc 1.57 / Soucek 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Strejc)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13029496
Strejc1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 36 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Soucek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrejc4wins
AwaySoucek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSoucek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrejc66.7%2 of 3
AwaySoucek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strejc3Soucek7n = 10Soucek took 7 of 10
S2Strejc7Soucek3n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S3Strejc5Soucek5n = 10split evenly
S4Strejc4Soucek4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrejcSoucekStrejc − SoucekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.439.2+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrejcSoucekBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 476 vs 91 / 20546.6%44.4%222 / 476 vs 91 / 205Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrejcStrejc 1.57/Soucek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Strejc · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Soucek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 8 · 16:55F. Strejc—161211113L. Soucek—1810981
LApr 2 · 14:55F. Strejc—1111681L. Soucek—13611113
LMar 14 · 09:55F. Strejc—65150L. Soucek—1111173
LMar 1 · 12:25F. Strejc—1012551L. Soucek—121011113
LFeb 25 · 19:30F. Strejc—10111191L. Soucek—12139113
LFeb 25 · 17:25F. Strejc—85111122L. Soucek—111187113
WFeb 19 · 17:55F. Strejc—1111113L. Soucek—8970
LFeb 4 · 19:00F. Strejc—1111119112L. Soucek—841311133
WFeb 4 · 17:55F. Strejc—81111113L. Soucek—118391
WJan 22 · 19:27F. Strejc—11118153L. Soucek—1111131
F. Strejc10
LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162WSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113LSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751LSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113LSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182WSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek1.91912641F. Strejc1.80111011113LSep 2 · 16:55F. Strejc1.8391121182T. Flicek1.83119116113
L. Soucek10
LAug 30 · 18:00F. Strejc1.631111133L. Soucek2.1375110LAug 30 · 16:55L. Soucek2.201041161T. Vorisek1.6112117113LAug 30 · 15:55L. Soucek2.103960M. Stusek1.671111113LAug 30 · 14:55L. Soucek1.807490F. Strejc1.911111113LAug 27 · 18:10L. Soucek1.835930F. Strejc1.831111113LAug 27 · 16:55T. Vorisek1.6751111113L. Soucek2.10116771LAug 27 · 15:25L. Soucek2.00710111482T. Flicek1.731112512113LApr 8 · 18:00L. Soucek1.80129651M. Stusek1.91101111113LApr 8 · 16:55F. Strejc1.83161211113L. Soucek1.831810981LApr 8 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.731111113L. Soucek2.001940
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