Martin Stusek vs Filip Strejc 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13124371

Played Sep 13Finished

Martin Stusek

Home

1.67

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1194111161311––

Filip Strejc

Away

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Strejc below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 13-11

Point 76 set 4, 13-11

76 points played in total.

H2H Martin Stusek 69–69 Filip Strejc Dead even across their 138 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Strejc beat Stusek 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Stusek)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Strejc form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsStusek 1.67 / Strejc 2.10

Signal prob.57% / 43%

Edge (Stusek)+0.8pp

TT Cup · #13124371

Stusek1.67

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite51% won 53 of 104

Up 2–0, closes it86% 30 of 35

Up 1–0, closes it68% 41 of 60

Strejc2.10

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog39% won 45 of 115

Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62

Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeStusek5wins

AwayStrejc5wins

2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeStusek57.1%4 of 7

AwayStrejc66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Stusek7Strejc3n = 10Stusek took 7 of 10

S2Stusek4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10

S3Stusek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly

S4Stusek3Strejc3n = 6split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricStusekStrejcStusek − StrejcBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.638.3−0.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricStusekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 676 vs 210 / 46347%45.4%318 / 676 vs 210 / 463Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.7per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Stusek

Stusek 1.67/Strejc 2.10

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.6%

Stusek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Stusek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek33117781F. Strejc4291111113

LSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek4314461272F. Strejc5512111110113

LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek28101080F. Strejc351212113

WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek361411113F. Strejc2912980

WSep 4 · 19:50M. Stusek341112113F. Strejc2571080

WAug 30 · 17:25M. Stusek341211113F. Strejc2510870

WAug 28 · 21:40M. Stusek521161113113F. Strejc48131151182

WAug 28 · 19:50M. Stusek45111112113F. Strejc36951481

LAug 26 · 22:28M. Stusek361110781F. Strejc4391211113

LAug 26 · 21:25M. Stusek351041381F. Strejc45121111113

M. Stusek10

LSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek1.73117781F. Strejc2.0091111113 LSep 13 · 07:55T. Vorisek1.6712611143M. Stusek2.1010118121 WSep 13 · 07:25L. Soucek2.385711141M. Stusek1.5311118163 WSep 11 · 22:03M. Stusek2.001116113T. Vorisek1.7391470 WSep 11 · 20:55M. Stusek1.831131111113O. Kadavy1.8313116682 WSep 11 · 19:55M. Stusek1.83118116113T. Vorisek1.8361141182 LSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek1.7314461272F. Strejc2.0012111110113 LSep 9 · 22:00J. Zlamal1.441111113M. Stusek2.639590 LSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113 LSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113

F. Strejc10

WSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek1.73117781F. Strejc2.0091111113 LSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113 LSep 13 · 06:55T. Vorisek1.53111110113F. Strejc2.38791241 WSep 11 · 22:33F. Strejc1.831111133O. Kadavy1.8389110 WSep 11 · 21:25T. Vorisek1.6171191162F. Strejc2.20112119113 LSep 11 · 20:25F. Strejc1.8371161192O. Kadavy1.83119117113 WSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek1.7314461272F. Strejc2.0012111110113 LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181 LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113 LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162

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Today's matches are already sealed.