TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123071
Played Sep 13Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711711811––
Filip Strejc
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:25 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 69–68 Filip Strejc Filip Strejc has won 68 of their 137 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-68 in 137
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1764 vs Strejc 1648
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 80% vs Strejc 40%
Stusek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 40% vs Strejc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -1 · Strejc -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.73 / Strejc 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stusek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13123071
Stusek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 53 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it68% 41 of 60
Strejc2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 45 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek5wins
AwayStrejc5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrejc75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Strejc4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S3Stusek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek3Strejc2n = 5Stusek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekStrejcStusek − StrejcBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.4−1.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 676 vs 209 / 46347%45.1%318 / 676 vs 209 / 463Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.73/Strejc 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek4314461272F. Strejc5512111110113
LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek28101080F. Strejc351212113
WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek361411113F. Strejc2912980
WSep 4 · 19:50M. Stusek341112113F. Strejc2571080
WAug 30 · 17:25M. Stusek341211113F. Strejc2510870
WAug 28 · 21:40M. Stusek521161113113F. Strejc48131151182
WAug 28 · 19:50M. Stusek45111112113F. Strejc36951481
LAug 26 · 22:28M. Stusek361110781F. Strejc4391211113
LAug 26 · 21:25M. Stusek351041381F. Strejc45121111113
LAug 23 · 08:55M. Stusek209740F. Strejc331111113
M. Stusek10
LSep 13 · 07:55T. Vorisek1.6712611143M. Stusek2.1010118121WSep 13 · 07:25L. Soucek2.385711141M. Stusek1.5311118163WSep 11 · 22:03M. Stusek2.001116113T. Vorisek1.7391470WSep 11 · 20:55M. Stusek1.831131111113O. Kadavy1.8313116682WSep 11 · 19:55M. Stusek1.83118116113T. Vorisek1.8361141182LSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek1.7314461272F. Strejc2.0012111110113LSep 9 · 22:00J. Zlamal1.441111113M. Stusek2.639590LSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113LSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113
F. Strejc10
LSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113LSep 13 · 06:55T. Vorisek1.53111110113F. Strejc2.38791241WSep 11 · 22:33F. Strejc1.831111133O. Kadavy1.8389110WSep 11 · 21:25T. Vorisek1.6171191162F. Strejc2.20112119113LSep 11 · 20:25F. Strejc1.8371161192O. Kadavy1.83119117113WSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek1.7314461272F. Strejc2.0012111110113LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162WSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113
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