TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142740
Played Sep 17Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111315119911––
Pavlo Shulhachyk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Pavlo Shulhachyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ihor Dubinin at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 21–20 Pavlo Shulhachyk Pavlo Shulhachyk has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:31What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dubinin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-20 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1372 vs Shulhachyk 1404
Shulhachyk
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 40% vs Shulhachyk 80%
Shulhachyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 50% vs Shulhachyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin -1 · Shulhachyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dubinin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shulhachyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 1.73 / Shulhachyk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dubinin)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142740
Dubinin1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Shulhachyk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 13 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin6wins
AwayShulhachyk4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin80%4 of 5
AwayShulhachyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin5Shulhachyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Dubinin3Shulhachyk7n = 10Shulhachyk took 7 of 10
S3Dubinin6Shulhachyk4n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S4Dubinin4Shulhachyk2n = 6Dubinin took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininShulhachykD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.335.6−0.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininShulhachykBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 449 vs 172 / 29050.8%59.3%228 / 449 vs 172 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DubininDubinin 1.73/Shulhachyk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shulhachyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 14:30I. Dubinin371411123P. Shulhachyk31129100
WAug 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin4181111113P. Shulhachyk32116871
LJul 22 · 12:00I. Dubinin2151060P. Shulhachyk341112113
WJul 18 · 14:30I. Dubinin3521111113P. Shulhachyk36119881
WJul 13 · 12:00I. Dubinin4111811113P. Shulhachyk30811561
LJun 9 · 12:00I. Dubinin1731040P. Shulhachyk341112113
WMar 4 · 13:00I. Dubinin4411811143P. Shulhachyk408119121
LFeb 25 · 13:00I. Dubinin411115781P. Shulhachyk4341711113
LFeb 16 · 18:26I. Dubinin2710980P. Shulhachyk341211113
WFeb 16 · 16:00I. Dubinin49119117113P. Shulhachyk4271171162
I. Dubinin10
LSep 10 · 17:10R. Hryhoriev1.85971116113I. Dubinin1.85111171492WSep 10 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.366811111I. Dubinin3.0011118133LSep 10 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.33311661Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511911113LSep 10 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801441361R. Hryhoriev1.91121115113WSep 10 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.00611611123V. Simchuk1.73119119102WSep 7 · 17:08S. Sideltsev2.6310960I. Dubinin1.441211113LSep 7 · 16:30S. Honcharenko3.251151112113I. Dubinin1.3351161492WSep 7 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.8091411113I. Sorochan1.911112591LSep 7 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.83114891N. Priadko1.8381111113WSep 7 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.10114511113S. Sideltsev1.6791111682
P. Shulhachyk10
WSep 15 · 10:29P. Shulhachyk1.441111113113Y. Zvolynskyi2.6388131152LSep 15 · 09:00V. Matviichuk4.5011118133P. Shulhachyk1.177611111WSep 15 · 07:30S. Honcharenko3.4071080P. Shulhachyk1.301112113WSep 15 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.507670P. Shulhachyk1.501111113WSep 15 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.2011721121P. Shulhachyk1.61131119143LAug 27 · 09:30P. Shulhachyk2.006480P. Kolesnik1.731111113LAug 27 · 08:30P. Shulhachyk3.255770M. Denysenko1.331111113LAug 27 · 07:00P. Shulhachyk1.7381116542M. Pohorilyi2.001161411113LAug 27 · 06:00P. Shulhachyk3.259125101O. Torianyk1.33111011123WAug 18 · 10:28P. Shulhachyk1.671111113M. Pohorilyi2.101840
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