TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130838
Played Sep 15Finished
Vasyl Matviichuk
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171168111311––
Pavlo Shulhachyk
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timePavlo Shulhachyk to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Pavlo Shulhachyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 78 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Pavlo Shulhachyk at 81.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 12–23 Pavlo Shulhachyk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 12 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Shulhachyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-23 in 35
Shulhachyk
Wrong
gap of 11 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1035 vs Shulhachyk 1417
Shulhachyk
Wrong
both rated, 382 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 20% vs Shulhachyk 60%
Shulhachyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 30% vs Shulhachyk 60%
Shulhachyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -3 · Shulhachyk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Shulhachyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shulhachyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 4.50 / Shulhachyk 1.17
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Shulhachyk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13130838
Matviichuk4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 30 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back7% 5 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Shulhachyk1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 43 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatviichuk4wins
AwayShulhachyk6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderShulhachyk leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichuk75%3 of 4
AwayShulhachyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk4Shulhachyk6n = 10Shulhachyk took 6 of 10
S2Matviichuk4Shulhachyk6n = 10Shulhachyk took 6 of 10
S3Matviichuk3Shulhachyk7n = 10Shulhachyk took 7 of 10
S4Matviichuk1Shulhachyk2n = 3Shulhachyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatviichukShulhachykM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match28.934.6−5.7per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukShulhachykBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 611 vs 173 / 29046.6%59.7%285 / 611 vs 173 / 290Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShulhachykMatviichuk 4.50/Shulhachyk 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81%
Shulhachyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 07:30V. Matviichuk2610880P. Shulhachyk341211113
LJul 14 · 09:00V. Matviichuk144640P. Shulhachyk331111113
LJun 24 · 09:00V. Matviichuk381181091P. Shulhachyk4281112113
LMay 19 · 08:00V. Matviichuk1862100P. Shulhachyk341111123
WFeb 8 · 07:00V. Matviichuk341112113P. Shulhachyk2791080
LJan 20 · 11:35V. Matviichuk196850P. Shulhachyk331111113
WJan 20 · 06:00V. Matviichuk43131144113P. Shulhachyk42115111142
WJan 14 · 10:56V. Matviichuk341111123P. Shulhachyk2798100
WJan 14 · 10:00V. Matviichuk4471115113P. Shulhachyk411181391
LOct 4 · 05:00V. Matviichuk199730P. Shulhachyk331111113
V. Matviichuk10
LSep 15 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.501112113V. Matviichuk2.5091070LSep 15 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251112113V. Matviichuk3.7581040LSep 15 · 05:30S. Honcharenko1.5011116113V. Matviichuk2.50551161WSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112LSep 10 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak3.251111133V. Matviichuk1.3345110LSep 10 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.631211113V. Matviichuk1.4410450LSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WSep 8 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.441111113V. Hyriavyi2.637530LSep 8 · 09:00V. Matviichuk2.25691191M. Zavoloka1.5711113113WSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113
P. Shulhachyk10
WSep 15 · 07:30S. Honcharenko3.4071080P. Shulhachyk1.301112113WSep 15 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.507670P. Shulhachyk1.501111113WSep 15 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.2011721121P. Shulhachyk1.61131119143LAug 27 · 09:30P. Shulhachyk2.006480P. Kolesnik1.731111113LAug 27 · 08:30P. Shulhachyk3.255770M. Denysenko1.331111113LAug 27 · 07:00P. Shulhachyk1.7381116542M. Pohorilyi2.001161411113LAug 27 · 06:00P. Shulhachyk3.259125101O. Torianyk1.33111011123WAug 18 · 10:28P. Shulhachyk1.671111113M. Pohorilyi2.101840WAug 18 · 09:00V. Simchuk2.636880P. Shulhachyk1.441111113WAug 18 · 07:30S. Honcharenko3.001041181P. Shulhachyk1.3612119113
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