TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451056
Played Aug 18Finished
Viacheslav Simchuk
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811811––––
Pavlo Shulhachyk
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:45 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timePavlo Shulhachyk to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Pavlo Shulhachyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Pavlo Shulhachyk at 63.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 2–12 Pavlo Shulhachyk Viacheslav Simchuk has won 2 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Shulhachyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-12 in 14
Shulhachyk
Correct
gap of 10 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1380 vs Shulhachyk 1399
Shulhachyk
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 40% vs Shulhachyk 80%
Shulhachyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 50% vs Shulhachyk 70%
Shulhachyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk +1 · Shulhachyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Shulhachyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shulhachyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 2.63 / Shulhachyk 1.44
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Shulhachyk)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12451056
Simchuk2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 26 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Shulhachyk1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 55 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk2wins
AwayShulhachyk8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderShulhachyk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayShulhachyk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk3Shulhachyk7n = 10Shulhachyk took 7 of 10
S2Simchuk4Shulhachyk6n = 10Shulhachyk took 6 of 10
S3Simchuk4Shulhachyk6n = 10Shulhachyk took 6 of 10
S4Simchuk2Shulhachyk5n = 7Shulhachyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukShulhachykSimchuk − ShulhachykBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.437.4−5.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukShulhachykBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 454 vs 194 / 32261.2%60.3%278 / 454 vs 194 / 322Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShulhachykSimchuk 2.63/Shulhachyk 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63%
Shulhachyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Shulhachyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 09:00V. Simchuk—6880P. Shulhachyk—1111113
LAug 11 · 05:30V. Simchuk—2690P. Shulhachyk—1111113
WAug 6 · 12:30V. Simchuk—1111113P. Shulhachyk—5620
LJun 24 · 05:00V. Simchuk—1412991P. Shulhachyk—161011113
LMay 19 · 10:29V. Simchuk—241131P. Shulhachyk—11116113
WMay 19 · 05:00V. Simchuk—11119113P. Shulhachyk—971131
LMar 8 · 18:09V. Simchuk—871151P. Shulhachyk—11118113
LMar 8 · 13:30V. Simchuk—411341P. Shulhachyk—11911113
LSep 20 · 10:00V. Simchuk—144111182P. Shulhachyk—161183113
LSep 20 · 05:30V. Simchuk—1188181P. Shulhachyk—41111203
V. Simchuk10
LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990LSep 4 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.578111211113V. Simchuk2.25111310722WSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113LAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780WAug 30 · 15:30I. Sorochan1.834980V. Simchuk1.831111113LAug 30 · 14:30V. Simchuk1.2865111192Y. Zvolynskyi3.50111178103WAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.20111111942V. Simchuk1.61513811113LAug 30 · 12:30V. Simchuk2.25591131S. Sideltsev1.5711115113
P. Shulhachyk10
LAug 27 · 09:30P. Shulhachyk2.006480P. Kolesnik1.731111113LAug 27 · 08:30P. Shulhachyk3.255770M. Denysenko1.331111113LAug 27 · 07:00P. Shulhachyk1.7381116542M. Pohorilyi2.001161411113LAug 27 · 06:00P. Shulhachyk3.259125101O. Torianyk1.33111011123WAug 18 · 10:28P. Shulhachyk1.671111113M. Pohorilyi2.101840WAug 18 · 07:30S. Honcharenko3.001041181P. Shulhachyk1.3612119113LAug 18 · 06:00I. Sorochan2.1011119113P. Shulhachyk1.67991191WAug 18 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.73815231P. Shulhachyk2.00111311113WAug 11 · 09:59I. Sorochan2.008350P. Shulhachyk1.731111113WAug 11 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi2.25111511852P. Shulhachyk1.571313911113
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