TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451033
Played Aug 18Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012411119811––
Pavlo Shulhachyk
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:48 and never touched — 73.8% is still 73.8%
Graded at full timePavlo Shulhachyk to win
73.8%
73.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Pavlo Shulhachyk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Pavlo Shulhachyk at 73.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 11–25 Pavlo Shulhachyk Serhii Honcharenko has won 11 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Shulhachyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-25 in 36
Shulhachyk
Correct
gap of 14 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1356 vs Shulhachyk 1418
Shulhachyk
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 60% vs Shulhachyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 60% vs Shulhachyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -1 · Shulhachyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Shulhachyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shulhachyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 3.00 / Shulhachyk 1.36
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Shulhachyk)+5.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451033
Honcharenko3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 62 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Shulhachyk1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 58 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it80% 43 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko3wins
AwayShulhachyk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShulhachyk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayShulhachyk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko3Shulhachyk7n = 10Shulhachyk took 7 of 10
S2Honcharenko3Shulhachyk7n = 10Shulhachyk took 7 of 10
S3Honcharenko5Shulhachyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Honcharenko1Shulhachyk4n = 5Shulhachyk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoShulhachykH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.333.5−2.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoShulhachykBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 799 vs 190 / 31849.8%59.8%398 / 799 vs 190 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShulhachykHoncharenko 3.00/Shulhachyk 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.8%
Shulhachyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shulhachyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—1041181P. Shulhachyk—12119113
WAug 10 · 12:00S. Honcharenko—1111113P. Shulhachyk—5420
WJul 12 · 10:33S. Honcharenko—118115113P. Shulhachyk—41151142
WJul 12 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—111111113P. Shulhachyk—137451
LJun 11 · 05:00S. Honcharenko—11811962P. Shulhachyk—511311113
LJan 27 · 06:30S. Honcharenko—8860P. Shulhachyk—1111113
LJan 23 · 13:00S. Honcharenko—8860P. Shulhachyk—1111113
LJan 5 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—7730P. Shulhachyk—1111113
LJan 4 · 13:00S. Honcharenko—51150P. Shulhachyk—1113113
LJan 3 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—611671P. Shulhachyk—11911113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691
P. Shulhachyk10
LAug 27 · 09:30P. Shulhachyk2.006480P. Kolesnik1.731111113LAug 27 · 08:30P. Shulhachyk3.255770M. Denysenko1.331111113LAug 27 · 07:00P. Shulhachyk1.7381116542M. Pohorilyi2.001161411113LAug 27 · 06:00P. Shulhachyk3.259125101O. Torianyk1.33111011123WAug 18 · 10:28P. Shulhachyk1.671111113M. Pohorilyi2.101840WAug 18 · 09:00V. Simchuk2.636880P. Shulhachyk1.441111113LAug 18 · 06:00I. Sorochan2.1011119113P. Shulhachyk1.67991191WAug 18 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.73815231P. Shulhachyk2.00111311113WAug 11 · 09:59I. Sorochan2.008350P. Shulhachyk1.731111113WAug 11 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi2.25111511852P. Shulhachyk1.571313911113
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