TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142628
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Seeman
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111191513115––
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Seeman above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 79 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 61.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jan Seeman 3–10 Pavel Moulis Jan Seeman has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Moulis
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Seeman 1372 vs Moulis 1286
Seeman
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Seeman 80% vs Moulis 40%
Seeman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Seeman 80% vs Moulis 20%
Seeman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Seeman +2 · Moulis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moulis) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeeman 2.10 / Moulis 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moulis)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13142628
Seeman2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Moulis1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 30 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeeman3wins
AwayMoulis7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoulis leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeeman66.7%2 of 3
AwayMoulis85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Seeman3Moulis7n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S2Seeman4Moulis6n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S3Seeman3Moulis7n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S4Seeman2Moulis6n = 8Moulis took 6 of 8
S5Seeman3Moulis1n = 4Seeman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeemanMoulisS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.643.5−6.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeemanMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 273 vs 194 / 43746.9%44.4%128 / 273 vs 194 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisSeeman 2.10/Moulis 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Seeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 11:00J. Seeman30811381P. Moulis4211911113
LAug 29 · 20:34J. Seeman31118481P. Moulis3851111113
LAug 29 · 19:00J. Seeman185580P. Moulis331111113
LAug 13 · 05:30J. Seeman4661171572P. Moulis531171113113
LAug 11 · 08:00J. Seeman335711101P. Moulis4311119123
WAug 4 · 07:00J. Seeman43111128113P. Moulis4276111172
WAug 1 · 19:00J. Seeman621191516113P. Moulis60911131892
LJul 24 · 17:30J. Seeman29791121P. Moulis4111118113
WJul 23 · 10:30J. Seeman46711411133P. Moulis45119113112
LJun 19 · 10:30J. Seeman2859140P. Moulis381111163
J. Seeman10
WSep 13 · 16:59J. Seeman1.44101111123L. Krutina2.631288101WSep 13 · 16:00L. Krutina1.91491181J. Seeman1.8011118113LSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112WSep 13 · 13:30M. Snizek2.20137641J. Seeman1.6111111193WSep 12 · 21:03J. Jnr2.20111012772J. Seeman1.619121011113WSep 12 · 19:30J. Mares2.7514280J. Seeman1.401611113WSep 12 · 19:00J. Seeman1.91611912113J. Jnr1.801171110102LSep 12 · 18:00J. Seeman2.00123112132D. Sabuka1.7310111110153WSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171WSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113
P. Moulis10
LSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470WSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492LSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis1.5731111952J. Jnr2.25119711113WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 20:00J. Hanacek1.4411117113P. Moulis2.63891161LSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 17:30J. Mejzlik1.5311117113P. Moulis2.38741191LSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112
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