TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131076
Played Sep 15Finished
Pavel Moulis
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
14168111181614119
Jan Blazek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Blazek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Jan Blazek below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 16-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 118 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jan Blazek at 54.0%
118 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 15–11 Jan Blazek Jan Blazek has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Blazek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Moulis
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moulis 1299 vs Blazek 1381
Blazek
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moulis 20% vs Blazek 60%
Blazek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moulis 10% vs Blazek 50%
Blazek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moulis -2 · Blazek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Blazek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 1.91 / Blazek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Blazek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13131076
Moulis1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Blazek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 25 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoulis5wins
AwayBlazek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis50%2 of 4
AwayBlazek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis4Blazek6n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10
S2Moulis4Blazek6n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10
S3Moulis4Blazek6n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10
S4Moulis5Blazek5n = 10split evenly
S5Moulis4Blazek1n = 5Moulis took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoulisBlazekM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.643.5−0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisBlazekBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 436 vs 167 / 38444.5%43.5%194 / 436 vs 167 / 384Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlazekMoulis 1.91/Blazek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Blazek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis601481116113J. Blazek58161181492
LSep 9 · 11:00P. Moulis331171051J. Blazek4391112113
WMar 6 · 13:34P. Moulis4211119113J. Blazek31861161
WMar 6 · 12:30P. Moulis49691211113J. Blazek45111110762
LMar 5 · 11:00P. Moulis30116581J. Blazek4291111113
LMar 4 · 11:00P. Moulis4788111192J. Blazek47111177113
WFeb 5 · 18:11P. Moulis49111187123J. Blazek38241111102
WFeb 5 · 17:00P. Moulis46712511113J. Blazek47111011872
LDec 12 · 13:12P. Moulis3711115101J. Blazek4213611123
LDec 12 · 10:45P. Moulis33981241J. Blazek42111110103
P. Moulis10
LSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis1.5731111952J. Jnr2.25119711113WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 20:00J. Hanacek1.4411117113P. Moulis2.63891161LSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 17:30J. Mejzlik1.5311117113P. Moulis2.38741191LSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152LSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862
J. Blazek10
WSep 15 · 11:00J. Blazek2.25811912113J. Jnr1.57117111072WSep 15 · 10:00J. Blazek1.7311119113M. Obraz2.00591191LSep 14 · 17:10L. Tuma1.401111113J. Blazek2.755880LSep 14 · 15:30J. Blazek2.38411781E. Ondracek1.5311911113WSep 14 · 14:30J. Blazek3.0011118113L. Tuma1.36461151WSep 14 · 13:30J. Blazek2.201216113J. Hanacek1.61101470LSep 9 · 12:29J. Blazek2.10211471M. Melisek1.6711811113LSep 9 · 11:30M. Melisek1.831111113J. Blazek1.839250WSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051LSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113
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