TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126423
Played Sep 13Finished
Pavel Moulis
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11912101210––––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 64 set 3, 12-10
64 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 4–4 Jakub Dufek Jnr Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jnr beat Moulis 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Moulis)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (0%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 1.44 / Jnr 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Moulis)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126423
Moulis1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Jnr2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 74 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMoulis4wins
AwayJnr4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis60%3 of 5
AwayJnr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis5Jnr3n = 8Moulis took 5 of 8
S2Moulis4Jnr4n = 8split evenly
S3Moulis5Jnr3n = 8Moulis took 5 of 8
S4Moulis3Jnr2n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMoulisJnrM − JBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.434.6+1.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 432 vs 246 / 47644.4%51.7%192 / 432 vs 246 / 476Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMoulis 1.44/Jnr 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 13 · 19:00P. Moulis2614660J. Jnr381611113
WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis331111113J. Jnr186480
WSep 9 · 12:00P. Moulis331111113J. Jnr184860
LSep 2 · 11:00P. Moulis32971151J. Jnr4111118113
LAug 28 · 09:30P. Moulis4411711692J. Jnr46711611113
LAug 14 · 15:00P. Moulis4211491262J. Jnr474111110113
WJul 24 · 20:59P. Moulis4041411113J. Jnr371112771
WJul 24 · 20:00P. Moulis4111118113J. Jnr32391191
P. Moulis10
LSep 13 · 20:00J. Hanacek1.4411117113P. Moulis2.63891161LSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 17:30J. Mejzlik1.5311117113P. Moulis2.38741191LSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152LSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051
J. Jnr10
LSep 13 · 19:30J. Mejzlik1.53147811143J. Jnr2.381211118122WSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 18:00J. Jnr2.631112551J. Hanacek1.44131011113LSep 12 · 21:03J. Jnr2.20111012772J. Seeman1.619121011113WSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 19:00J. Seeman1.91611912113J. Jnr1.801171110102WSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480LSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113
Upcoming Matches
P. Moulis
Nothing scheduled
J. Jnr
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