TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13135117
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Obraz
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114117––––
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMartin Obraz above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7
52 points played in total.
H2H Martin Obraz 27–22 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 22 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Obraz beat Moulis 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Obraz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Obraz form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObraz 1.53 / Moulis 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Obraz)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13135117
Obraz1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 15 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Moulis2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeObraz7wins
AwayMoulis3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderObraz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeObraz83.3%5 of 6
AwayMoulis50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obraz6Moulis4n = 10Obraz took 6 of 10
S2Obraz5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S3Obraz6Moulis4n = 10Obraz took 6 of 10
S4Obraz3Moulis3n = 6split evenly
S5Obraz3Moulis1n = 4Obraz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricObrazMoulisO − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.5+1.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObrazMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 352 vs 194 / 43643.8%44.5%154 / 352 vs 194 / 436Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObrazObraz 1.53/Moulis 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Obraz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Obraz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 10:30M. Obraz46311714113P. Moulis47118111252
WMar 6 · 10:30M. Obraz331111113P. Moulis172780
LFeb 3 · 13:50M. Obraz29151040P. Moulis401712113
WFeb 3 · 10:15M. Obraz45126115113P. Moulis46101181162
LJan 1 · 14:30M. Obraz184770P. Moulis331111113
WDec 10 · 13:45M. Obraz45111185103P. Moulis3754111162
WDec 10 · 11:30M. Obraz3961111113P. Moulis33117781
LDec 2 · 12:45M. Obraz4111511682P. Moulis42511411113
WNov 25 · 09:30M. Obraz341211113P. Moulis2810990
WNov 25 · 07:00M. Obraz3911611113P. Moulis32611781
M. Obraz10
LSep 15 · 12:00M. Obraz1.737114151J. Jnr2.0011411173WSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 10:00J. Blazek1.7311119113M. Obraz2.00591191LJun 17 · 09:08J. Puk1.91411127113M. Obraz1.80114101142LJun 17 · 08:00M. Obraz1.739101191J. Puk2.0011129113LJun 17 · 06:30O. Plyska1.501311113M. Obraz2.5011760WJun 17 · 06:00J. Hanacek1.6199111262M. Obraz2.201111910113LJun 16 · 08:58M. Obraz2.5011711882O. Plyska1.50611311113LJun 16 · 08:00O. Plyska1.531113113M. Obraz2.3871190LJun 16 · 07:00M. Vorel1.579131111113M. Obraz2.25111151382
P. Moulis10
WSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492LSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis1.5731111952J. Jnr2.25119711113WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 20:00J. Hanacek1.4411117113P. Moulis2.63891161LSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 17:30J. Mejzlik1.5311117113P. Moulis2.38741191LSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152
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