TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12052743
Played Jun 17Finished
Martin Obraz
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012119911––
Jaroslav Puk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Obraz above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11
82 points played in total.
H2H Martin Obraz 30–24 Jaroslav Puk Jaroslav Puk has won 24 of their 54 meetings.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Obraz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Obraz form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObraz 1.73 / Puk 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Obraz)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12052743
Obraz1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Puk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 29 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeObraz7wins
AwayPuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderObraz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeObraz83.3%5 of 6
AwayPuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obraz6Puk4n = 10Obraz took 6 of 10
S2Obraz7Puk3n = 10Obraz took 7 of 10
S3Obraz6Puk4n = 10Obraz took 6 of 10
S4Obraz2Puk4n = 6Puk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricObrazPukO − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.232.9+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObrazPukBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 706 vs 212 / 44345.2%47.9%319 / 706 vs 212 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObrazObraz 1.73/Puk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Obraz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 2 · 09:13M. Obraz50812127113J. Puk481110101162
WJun 2 · 05:30M. Obraz51111199113J. Puk4368111172
WMay 27 · 06:00M. Obraz331111113J. Puk184950
LMay 18 · 12:35M. Obraz141670J. Puk331111113
WMay 18 · 11:00M. Obraz361112133J. Puk30910110
LMay 7 · 12:00M. Obraz302711101J. Puk4211118123
WMay 4 · 09:05M. Obraz3911116113J. Puk26351171
WMay 4 · 08:00M. Obraz331111113J. Puk175660
WApr 22 · 11:30M. Obraz43101111113J. Puk29124491
LApr 2 · 08:44M. Obraz331151071J. Puk4391112113
M. Obraz10
LSep 15 · 12:00M. Obraz1.737114151J. Jnr2.0011411173WSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 10:00J. Blazek1.7311119113M. Obraz2.00591191LJun 17 · 09:08J. Puk1.91411127113M. Obraz1.80114101142LJun 17 · 06:30O. Plyska1.501311113M. Obraz2.5011760WJun 17 · 06:00J. Hanacek1.6199111262M. Obraz2.201111910113LJun 16 · 08:58M. Obraz2.5011711882O. Plyska1.50611311113LJun 16 · 08:00O. Plyska1.531113113M. Obraz2.3871190LJun 16 · 07:00M. Vorel1.579131111113M. Obraz2.25111151382LJun 16 · 05:30M. Vana1.8011512113M. Obraz1.911111071
J. Puk10
LSep 11 · 09:19J. Puk1.91101141162F. Husek1.80129114113WSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112WSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 06:00F. Husek1.619101191J. Puk2.2011124113LSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113WSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172LSep 8 · 05:30O. Plyska1.441113113J. Puk2.6351160WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WJun 17 · 09:08J. Puk1.91411127113M. Obraz1.80114101142
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