TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13114149
Played Sep 11Finished
Jaroslav Puk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119411114611
Filip Husek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Filip Husek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11
89 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 2–2 Filip Husek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Puk beat Husek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Husek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Husek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 1.91 / Husek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Husek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13114149
Puk1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Husek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 14 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePuk2wins
AwayHusek2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk2Husek2n = 4split evenly
S2Puk1Husek3n = 4Husek took 3 of 4
S3Puk1Husek3n = 4Husek took 3 of 4
S4Puk2Husek1n = 3Puk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricPukHusekP − HBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.238.8−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukHusekBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 319 vs 73 / 14747.7%49.7%152 / 319 vs 73 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HusekPuk 1.91/Husek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Husek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Husek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 11 · 06:00J. Puk—11124113F. Husek—9101191
WJun 26 · 07:45J. Puk—1114811113F. Husek—41611742
LNov 28 · 10:30J. Puk—481161F. Husek—11118113
LNov 7 · 06:30J. Puk—9990F. Husek—1111113
J. Puk10
WSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112WSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 06:00F. Husek1.619101191J. Puk2.2011124113LSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113WSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172LSep 8 · 05:30O. Plyska1.441113113J. Puk2.6351160WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113
F. Husek10
WSep 11 · 07:30M. Snizek2.20713731F. Husek1.61111111113WSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152LSep 11 · 06:00F. Husek1.619101191J. Puk2.2011124113LSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 15:30F. Husek2.0081191192L. Tuma1.73119115113LSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113LSep 4 · 13:30F. Husek1.83511391K. Jirousek1.8311711113WAug 21 · 17:14J. Jnr1.731171251F. Husek2.0061114113WAug 21 · 15:30F. Husek1.911114116113M. Melisek1.80812131182WAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek2.7511611113E. Ondracek1.40611441
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