TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142604
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
101211811131618––
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Osadchyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 16-18
Point 99 set 4, 16-18 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 54.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 54–47 Oleksandr Osadchyi Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 47 of their 101 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-47 in 101
Leonenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 101, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1466 vs Osadchyi 1501
Osadchyi
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 60% vs Osadchyi 40%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 50% vs Osadchyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +1 · Osadchyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Osadchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.20 / Osadchyi 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Osadchyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142604
Leonenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 54
Osadchyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 106 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it83% 76 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko4wins
AwayOsadchyi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayOsadchyi71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko3Osadchyi7n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S2Leonenko4Osadchyi6n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko4Osadchyi6n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S4Leonenko4Osadchyi3n = 7Leonenko took 4 of 7
S5Leonenko2Osadchyi1n = 3Leonenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoOsadchyiL − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.442.4−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoOsadchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 841 vs 443 / 86451.7%51.3%435 / 841 vs 443 / 864Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiLeonenko 2.20/Osadchyi 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 11 · 10:20O. Leonenko4615117133O. Osadchyi4413911111
LJun 10 · 21:20O. Leonenko4914981172O. Osadchyi521211117113
LJun 7 · 21:20O. Leonenko33671191O. Osadchyi3811115113
LJun 3 · 15:50O. Leonenko182790O. Osadchyi331111113
WMay 24 · 16:50O. Leonenko451519113O. Osadchyi39131790
LMay 21 · 09:50O. Leonenko33861271O. Osadchyi43111110113
LMay 20 · 16:50O. Leonenko301010100O. Osadchyi361212123
LMay 18 · 07:20O. Leonenko31661181O. Osadchyi4211119113
WMay 13 · 19:50O. Leonenko43411611113O. Osadchyi4611911692
WApr 27 · 12:20O. Leonenko561314612113O. Osadchyi511512111032
O. Leonenko10
WSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.28971191O. Leonenko3.5011114113LSep 17 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83881151O. Volynets1.8311119113LSep 17 · 07:35I. Emets1.4461111113O. Leonenko2.63118991WSep 17 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.381511113F. Voinarovskyi1.5313460WSep 12 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.20411111103S. Solomko1.6111511982WSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112WSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 17 · 10:35O. Volynets2.38116118102O. Osadchyi1.53511611123LSep 17 · 09:05I. Emets2.0011111113O. Osadchyi1.73117971WSep 17 · 07:05F. Voinarovskyi2.2011121101O. Osadchyi1.6113147113LSep 17 · 05:05V. Kolesnykov1.5011115113O. Osadchyi2.50371181LSep 15 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.4411681162S. Skhabitskiy2.63711117113WSep 15 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.531112113A. Kovalenko2.3891080LSep 15 · 08:05O. Osadchyi4.001011651A. Martyniuk1.2212611113WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090WSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870LSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113
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