TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141258
Played Sep 17Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.75
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11971111810121416
Andrzej Krezel
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
109 points played in total.
Set by set
11971111810121416
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 3–1 Andrzej Krezel Andrzej Krezel has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1457 vs Krezel 1499
Krezel
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 0% vs Krezel 80%
Krezel
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 20% vs Krezel 80%
Krezel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -5 · Krezel +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwiatkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.75 / Krezel 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13141258
Kwiatkowski1.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Krezel1.90
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 52 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back11% 12 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski3wins
AwayKrezel1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski2Krezel2n = 4split evenly
S2Kwiatkowski4Krezel0n = 4Kwiatkowski took 4 of 4
S3Kwiatkowski2Krezel2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiKrezelKwiatkowski − KrezelBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.233.2+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 255 vs 87 / 24443.5%35.7%111 / 255 vs 87 / 244Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.75/Krezel 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 26 · 03:55K. Kwiatkowski331111113A. Krezel235990
WAug 25 · 21:55K. Kwiatkowski48811612113A. Krezel43116111052
WAug 24 · 22:50K. Kwiatkowski331111113A. Krezel257990
LAug 24 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski357117101A. Krezel4211811123
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113LSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952LSep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.37311141132A. Staniczek2.89116167113LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143LSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113
A. Krezel10
WSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 19:30A. Krezel1.571111113A. Staniczek2.179660WSep 17 · 18:20A. Krezel4.701112113D. Molenda1.1391090WSep 17 · 05:05A. Krezel1.59891311113A. Staniczek2.12111111492LSep 17 · 03:30A. Krezel2.554890M. Warzecha1.451111113WSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel2.60981111113Z. Nocun1.4011114642WSep 17 · 24:45A. Krezel1.261111113W. Stechly3.259940WSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550LSep 16 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.80101111113A. Krezel1.91129461WSep 16 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.3239100A. Krezel2.951111123
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