TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141257
Played Sep 17Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012118411611––
Dariusz Molenda
Away
1.37
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDariusz Molenda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1012118411611––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 1–2 Dariusz Molenda Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (67%)
Molenda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1448 vs Molenda 1625
Molenda
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 0% vs Molenda 60%
Molenda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 10% vs Molenda 70%
Molenda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -5 · Molenda +2
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Molenda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molenda form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 2.75 / Molenda 1.37
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Molenda)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13141257
Kwiatkowski2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 66 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Molenda1.37
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite81% won 118 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it93% 102 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski1wins
AwayMolenda2wins
Molenda leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski1Molenda2n = 3Molenda took 2 of 3
S2Kwiatkowski1Molenda2n = 3Molenda took 2 of 3
S3Kwiatkowski0Molenda3n = 3Molenda took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiMolendaK − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match24.730.0−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiMolendaBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 256 vs 220 / 27943.4%78.9%111 / 256 vs 220 / 279Avg sets wonper match1.92.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolendaKwiatkowski 2.75/Molenda 1.37
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Molenda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Molenda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 25 · 19:10K. Kwiatkowski3911116113D. Molenda23551121
LAug 11 · 18:20K. Kwiatkowski162950D. Molenda331111113
LJul 14 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski1910360D. Molenda341211113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113LSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952LSep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.37311141132A. Staniczek2.89116167113LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143LSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122
D. Molenda10
WSep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik4.355780D. Molenda1.151111113WSep 17 · 20:45D. Molenda1.081111113A. Staniczek5.605270LSep 17 · 19:10D. Molenda1.3612311101J. Zelezik3.0014113123LSep 17 · 18:20A. Krezel4.701112113D. Molenda1.1391090WSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113WSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261WSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 18:20M. Guzik2.106650D. Molenda1.601111113LSep 3 · 22:20J. Zelezik3.151311133D. Molenda1.30116110
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