TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137434
Played Sep 16Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113611811––––
Frantisek Dvorak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 2–4 Frantisek Dvorak Vojtech Koutnik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:49What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1601 vs Dvorak 1551
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 80% vs Dvorak 60%
Koutnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Dvorak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +3 · Dvorak -1
Koutnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.83 / Dvorak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dvorak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13137434
Koutnik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Dvorak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKoutnik2wins
AwayDvorak4wins
Dvorak leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDvorak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik2Dvorak4n = 6Dvorak took 4 of 6
S2Koutnik1Dvorak5n = 6Dvorak took 5 of 6
S3Koutnik5Dvorak1n = 6Koutnik took 5 of 6
S4Koutnik1Dvorak3n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKoutnikDvorakK − DBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match32.837.2−4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 350 vs 169 / 30947.1%54.7%165 / 350 vs 169 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakKoutnik 1.83/Dvorak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 26 · 14:35V. Koutnik341112113F. Dvorak2581070
LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik32671181F. Dvorak3911116113
LAug 20 · 12:25V. Koutnik3710512101F. Dvorak45121110123
LJun 14 · 08:55V. Koutnik2141070F. Dvorak341112113
LApr 29 · 17:25V. Koutnik316312101F. Dvorak44111110123
WApr 29 · 14:50V. Koutnik4213711113F. Dvorak361111951
V. Koutnik10
WSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113WSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113WSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080WSep 11 · 10:00B. Budik1.9581171282V. Koutnik1.751191110113WSep 11 · 08:55V. Koutnik2.501013611123T. Hnizdil1.501211114102LSep 11 · 07:55V. Koutnik1.7181171192B. Budik2.00118119113LSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113
F. Dvorak10
WSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.253560LSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652WSep 10 · 07:55F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.257780LSep 9 · 14:00T. Hnizdil1.2791111113F. Dvorak3.30118861WSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191WSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113
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