TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137404
Played Sep 16Finished
Simon Holik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611511––
Frantisek Dvorak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Simon Holik at 54.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 9–6 Frantisek Dvorak Frantisek Dvorak has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:47What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Holik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1559 vs Dvorak 1575
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 80% vs Dvorak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 60% vs Dvorak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik +2 · Dvorak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.73 / Dvorak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13137404
Holik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite51% won 25 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Dvorak2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 15 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolik5wins
AwayDvorak5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolik66.7%2 of 3
AwayDvorak57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S2Holik7Dvorak3n = 10Holik took 7 of 10
S3Holik6Dvorak4n = 10Holik took 6 of 10
S4Holik5Dvorak4n = 10Holik took 5 of 10
S5Holik1Dvorak3n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolikDvorakH − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.643.1−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 208 vs 162 / 29852.4%54.4%109 / 208 vs 162 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikHolik 1.73/Dvorak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 13:50S. Holik41511411102F. Dvorak44118112123
WJul 29 · 12:20S. Holik44121011113F. Dvorak381012971
WMar 18 · 13:55S. Holik4491111133F. Dvorak381179111
WFeb 26 · 14:55S. Holik3961111112F. Dvorak331147111
LFeb 26 · 13:50S. Holik337141021F. Dvorak46111212113
LJan 18 · 14:50S. Holik4771411692F. Dvorak541112911113
WJan 18 · 12:20S. Holik3911511123F. Dvorak285112101
LDec 31 · 12:25S. Holik54118168112F. Dvorak589111411133
LSep 6 · 17:50S. Holik33811591F. Dvorak4211911113
WSep 6 · 15:20S. Holik528111012113F. Dvorak50118121092
S. Holik10
WSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113WSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113WSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161
F. Dvorak10
WSep 16 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.253560WSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113LSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652WSep 10 · 07:55F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.257780LSep 9 · 14:00T. Hnizdil1.2791111113F. Dvorak3.30118861WSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191WSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113
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