TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137415
Played Sep 16Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1513118811311611
Simon Holik
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Simon Holik at 60.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 1–3 Simon Holik Vojtech Koutnik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:47What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Holik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Holik
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1584 vs Holik 1547
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 60% vs Holik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 60% vs Holik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik -1 · Holik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 2.25 / Holik 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Holik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13137415
Koutnik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 47 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back34% 18 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Holik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 25 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKoutnik1wins
AwayHolik3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderHolik leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHolik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik1Holik3n = 4Holik took 3 of 4
S2Koutnik0Holik4n = 4Holik took 4 of 4
S3Koutnik1Holik3n = 4Holik took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricKoutnikHolikK − HBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match31.038.5−7.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 351 vs 108 / 20747%52.2%165 / 351 vs 108 / 207Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikKoutnik 2.25/Holik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 27 · 14:55V. Koutnik279990S. Holik331111113
WJun 19 · 08:55V. Koutnik47145611113S. Holik45121111562
LMar 11 · 17:20V. Koutnik207760S. Holik331111113
LMar 2 · 13:25V. Koutnik303411121S. Holik4311117143
V. Koutnik10
WSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113WSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113WSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080WSep 11 · 10:00B. Budik1.9581171282V. Koutnik1.751191110113WSep 11 · 08:55V. Koutnik2.501013611123T. Hnizdil1.501211114102LSep 11 · 07:55V. Koutnik1.7181171192B. Budik2.00118119113LSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113
S. Holik10
LSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113WSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.