TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136531
Played Sep 16Finished
Yevhen Skorobahatyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11971112107111012
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhen Skorobahatyi above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Skorobahatyi 15–17 Daniil Habrelyan Yevhen Skorobahatyi has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:37What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Habrelyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-17 in 32
Habrelyan
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorobahatyi 1542 vs Habrelyan 1579
Habrelyan
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorobahatyi 20% vs Habrelyan 60%
Habrelyan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorobahatyi 20% vs Habrelyan 50%
Habrelyan
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorobahatyi -4 · Habrelyan +2
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Habrelyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorobahatyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorobahatyi 1.91 / Habrelyan 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Habrelyan)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13136531
Skorobahatyi1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 16 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back9% 2 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Habrelyan1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 21 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorobahatyi6wins
AwayHabrelyan4wins
Skorobahatyi leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorobahatyi85.7%6 of 7
AwayHabrelyan100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorobahatyi7Habrelyan3n = 10Skorobahatyi took 7 of 10
S2Skorobahatyi4Habrelyan6n = 10Habrelyan took 6 of 10
S3Skorobahatyi7Habrelyan3n = 10Skorobahatyi took 7 of 10
S4Skorobahatyi2Habrelyan2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorobahatyiHabrelyanS − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.328.5+4.8per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorobahatyiHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 270 vs 190 / 40346.7%47.2%126 / 270 vs 190 / 403Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanSkorobahatyi 1.91/Habrelyan 1.80
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LDec 30 · 13:20Y. Skorobahatyi2587100D. Habrelyan341111123
WDec 27 · 11:20Y. Skorobahatyi3811411123D. Habrelyan337115101
LNov 20 · 16:20Y. Skorobahatyi2816930D. Habrelyan401811113
WOct 7 · 07:50Y. Skorobahatyi331111113D. Habrelyan187920
LSep 7 · 10:30Y. Skorobahatyi32891141D. Habrelyan3811115113
WSep 3 · 16:25Y. Skorobahatyi351311113D. Habrelyan2411940
WSep 3 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi341211113D. Habrelyan2110380
WAug 31 · 06:00Y. Skorobahatyi331111113D. Habrelyan156360
WAug 30 · 11:40Y. Skorobahatyi4011711113D. Habrelyan28611561
LAug 27 · 13:10Y. Skorobahatyi35119781D. Habrelyan3411111113
Y. Skorobahatyi10
LSep 16 · 16:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.50612111162Y. Holoborodko2.50111437113LSep 16 · 13:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.5311116862V. Merzlikin2.38641111113LSep 16 · 11:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.2510940A. Zozulia1.571211113LSep 12 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.50137751V. Merzlikin2.50111111113LSep 12 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.5011791172M. Tiutiunnyk1.50811114113WSep 12 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.73119911113A. Droshchynskyi2.0061111982WSep 12 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.671111113Y. Holoborodko2.106780LSep 12 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.101011631V. Maksuta1.6712811113LSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 10:20Y. Opryshchenko1.801111113Y. Skorobahatyi1.915650
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 16 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.50118781D. Habrelyan1.5061111113WSep 16 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.40109111162D. Habrelyan2.75121168113LSep 9 · 17:10D. Habrelyan1.6191111872O. Nadporozhskyi2.20118311113LSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070WSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120LSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113
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