TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136448
Played Sep 16Finished
Yevhen Skorobahatyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116114611811611
Valerii Merzlikin
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeYevhen Skorobahatyi to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYevhen Skorobahatyi above · Valerii Merzlikin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 85 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yevhen Skorobahatyi at 62.4%
85 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Skorobahatyi 13–6 Valerii Merzlikin Valerii Merzlikin has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorobahatyi 1555 vs Merzlikin 1479
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorobahatyi 40% vs Merzlikin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorobahatyi 20% vs Merzlikin 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorobahatyi -3 · Merzlikin -1
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Skorobahatyi) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorobahatyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorobahatyi 1.53 / Merzlikin 2.38
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Skorobahatyi)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13136448
Skorobahatyi1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 18 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Merzlikin2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 37 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorobahatyi8wins
AwayMerzlikin2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkorobahatyi leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorobahatyi77.8%7 of 9
AwayMerzlikinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorobahatyi9Merzlikin1n = 10Skorobahatyi took 9 of 10
S2Skorobahatyi6Merzlikin4n = 10Skorobahatyi took 6 of 10
S3Skorobahatyi8Merzlikin2n = 10Skorobahatyi took 8 of 10
S4Skorobahatyi4Merzlikin2n = 6Skorobahatyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorobahatyiMerzlikinS − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.028.7+9.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorobahatyiMerzlikinBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 269 vs 270 / 60146.8%44.9%126 / 269 vs 270 / 601Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorobahatyiSkorobahatyi 1.53/Merzlikin 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.6%
Skorobahatyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi32137751V. Merzlikin44111111113
WJun 20 · 11:10Y. Skorobahatyi331111113V. Merzlikin177640
LApr 17 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi48111168122V. Merzlikin52971111143
WFeb 6 · 10:35Y. Skorobahatyi4211911113V. Merzlikin34911591
WJan 27 · 09:50Y. Skorobahatyi3911611113V. Merzlikin24811051
WJan 20 · 09:50Y. Skorobahatyi331111113V. Merzlikin116230
WJan 19 · 18:20Y. Skorobahatyi371115113V. Merzlikin2141340
WDec 29 · 20:50Y. Skorobahatyi321111103V. Merzlikin197390
WDec 19 · 13:20Y. Skorobahatyi44101111123V. Merzlikin341284101
WDec 11 · 21:20Y. Skorobahatyi4011711113V. Merzlikin31911561
Y. Skorobahatyi10
LSep 16 · 11:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.2510940A. Zozulia1.571211113LSep 12 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.50137751V. Merzlikin2.50111111113LSep 12 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.5011791172M. Tiutiunnyk1.50811114113WSep 12 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.73119911113A. Droshchynskyi2.0061111982WSep 12 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.671111113Y. Holoborodko2.106780LSep 12 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.101011631V. Maksuta1.6712811113LSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 10:20Y. Opryshchenko1.801111113Y. Skorobahatyi1.915650LSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 16 · 14:10V. Merzlikin2.0091040A. Zozulia1.731112113LSep 16 · 11:40V. Merzlikin2.005680Y. Holoborodko1.731111113WSep 12 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.50137751V. Merzlikin2.50111111113LSep 12 · 15:40V. Merzlikin3.409540A. Droshchynskyi1.30111153WSep 12 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.8341191183V. Maksuta1.8311911972LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.53116971M. Tiutiunnyk2.3891111113LSep 12 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.8010580Y. Holoborodko1.911211113LSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113
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